Experts called outsiders parliamentary elections 2016 – News

At the end of March 2015 the Russian sociological centers prepared electoral ratings of parties that will take part in the election of the seventh convocation of the State Duma in 2016. Despite the small differences in the results of the March study “Levada Center” and the Public Opinion Foundation, observed a clear trend in the dynamics – “United Russia” is consolidating its position, while its parliamentary opponents, on the other hand, lose supporters. Some experts have expressed the view that elections under a mixed electoral system (elections in 2016 for the first time since 2007, will be held by the majority and proportional system) can lead to the appearance of the State Duma of the two main forces competing with each other.

According to the results of opinion polls conducted by “Levada Center” and the Public Opinion Foundation, if the Duma elections were held next Sunday, the Parliament would have been exactly the “United Russia” (“Levada Center” – 48% FOM – 59%) and the Communist Party (“Levada Center” – 9%, POF – 6%). Liberal Democratic Party in both polls won by 6%, and the “Fair Russia” – 2 and 3%, respectively. In comparison with previous months the ruling party added 4-5%, representatives of the parliamentary opposition lost a few percent or remained at the same levels.

Despite the fact that only the “Fair Russia”, in According to surveys, could not overcome the required 5 percent barrier, experts have expressed doubts in the results of the Liberal Democratic Party. Such is the opinion deputy director, “Levada-Center” Alexei Gragda nkin. In his opinion, the high rate of “United Russia” is associated with the dynamics of pre-election ratings – a quiet period when no active campaign, the ruling party has more features present in the media environment.

– However, there are some concerns about the passage of the Duma LDPR and “Fair Russia”. And indeed the Parliament itself may be bipartisan – said the expert, recognizing that before the election a lot of time and the situation can not change time. – Over the last year has grown significantly rating EP. I have the feeling that this is largely due to the Ukrainian events in respect of which increased confidence in all state institutions. I do not know whether this will last wave before the elections to the State Duma. Nevertheless, all the real action taking place in the country associated with the ruling party.

In turn, the head of the analytical department of FOM Gregory Kertman also considered premature any forecasts had said ” Izvestia “, he doubted that the Liberal Democratic Party will not take the barrier. However, about the “Socialist” expert of a different opinion. According to him, the upcoming elections for the CP will “struggle for life and death with an unknown end” because of the anonymity of the party.

– In place of CP, of course, would be worried. When will the real campaign with a large number of participants, the Communist Party and the Liberal Democratic Party as a specific and clear image will be quite stable. In this image there is no CP – said the expert. – When different types of participants they will, on the one hand, to compete with the ruling party, and with another – the voice of the pinch off rather modest luggage CP as a party without a face.

The fact that CP upcoming elections will not be easy, says the head of management and policy research VTsIOM Stepan Lvov. He notes that the election of 2016 will be very different from the previous ones due to changes in the political situation in the country.

– It is difficult to assess the possible outcomes of “Fair Russia”. Now it will be difficult because of the party left the key person – says Lviv.

At the party such forecasts sociologists do not want to be taken seriously. First Deputy Chairman of the faction “Fair Russia” in the State Duma Alexander Burkov believes that “the customer is more alive than dead».

– as long as I can remember (in CP 2007), before each Election experts predict we lose, not entering the State Duma, in the Duma regions. Nevertheless, for my story, we twice elected to the State Duma with a good result and in regional parliaments, we have even the second fraction in many regions of the strongest in the number of deputies – he said, adding that the party hopes to win and works in the interest of the voters.

In the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia in the parliamentary elections in 2016 have high expectations. The first deputy head of the LDPR faction in the State Duma Alexei Didenko told “Izvestia” that the party expects to win and only one hundred seats – now LDPR faction consists of 56 deputies.

– Our task – about 30 people on party lists and single-mandate constituencies 40-50 – said Didenko.

At the same time Parliament recognized that this is a very optimistic outlook. The fact that in most of LDPR have doubts about a party to enter parliament in the next elections, and said that he Alexei Didenko in early December submitted to the Duma a bill lowering the entrance barrier from 5 to 2.25%. Consideration of the document will take place this week.

In the Communist Party confident in their abilities in the forthcoming elections. Moreover, in the convening of the next parliamentary party intends not only to increase its influence, but also to promote its own settings to run the country. Communists admit that postkrymskaya agenda rallied political forces in Russia on foreign policy issues, but in solving social and economic problems views have little in common.

The deputy of the State Duma, the secretary of the Central Committee of the Communist Party Sergei Obukhov sure that Communist Party – the only opposition that is able to come to power as an independent political force, “implementing an alternative program development of the state».

– According to sociological research, up to 45-53% of the voters, despite to all the fluctuations of the political situation, allow, under certain conditions, the possibility to vote for the Communist Party – to explain the policy. – Now our electoral measurements show that the party was able to enlist the support of more than 30% in a number of important regional capitals (for example, in Novosibirsk and Nizhny Novgorod).

Obukhov recognizes that holding elections on a mixed system add party problems.

– As rightly pointed our leader Gennady Zyuganov, in single-member districts tend to win bags of money and administrative resources. Neither one nor the other in the Communist Party is not, so will send “in the field” the most famous of our representatives – said the people’s choice, adding that the party now holds about 150 froze recognition of leaders, the best of which will be assigned to the counties.

Some experts tend to believe that “the Popular Front” can become a lifeboat for politicians impassable parties. Oh, by the way, has already declared the leader says “Fair Russia” party Sergey Mironov rapprochement with the ONF and even delegation of party members in the “Front”. This is the opinion of the expert council member of the Institute of Socio-Economic and Political Studies Alexei Zudin. According to him, the ONF can be a “natural ally for the parties in the Duma».

ONF – not a political party, but it can provide political support related to him representatives of parties in the Duma.

– The probability of support will depend on the extent to which the CP and the Liberal Democratic Party may nominate from among themselves or find new socially-oriented candidates for the district – says the expert. – I think that this criterion – the most important condition for the possibility of support from the Popular Front for the candidates from these parties.

According to Zudina if the current situation persists in the political field, the parliamentary elections in 2016 will be able to lead to the “real, rather than a formal two-party system».

– Technically, there is no particular controversy. Two-party system, if it occurs in the future, does not mean that there will be no parties except the two dominant. Just all the other parties will be extremely small and very small quantities, – says the expert. – And their representatives in parliament in single member constituencies, will be forced to join any coalition with the two main parties and the Duma to agree on the terms of participation. In the creation of such coalitions will be interested and those and others.

Let us recall that in the parliamentary elections of 2011 for the “United Russia” voted 49% of voters support the Communists have 19% of the “Fair Russia” voted 13% and 11% for the Liberal Democratic Party voters . The 2007 elections brought the United Russia 63% of the votes, the Communist Party – 11%, while the Liberal Democratic Party and CP voted 8 and 7% of voters respectively.