His valuation of victory in a single-mandate district in Russia in the Duma elections in 2016 introduced a at a press conference of the Russian Association of Political Consultants its vice-president, spin doctor Peter Bystrov . According to his calculations, the campaign costs an average of $ 10 per voter multiplied by the number of votes needed to win in the district.
When the average number of voters in a single-mandate district 500 thousand. People and the expected turnout 50% of the candidates will have to earn a little more than 50% of the vote among the 250 thousand. Voters then have to win the favor of at least 125 thousand. voters in the district for a guaranteed victory, said political consultant.
In this way, the victory will be Candidate cost $ 1.25 million, he concluded. During the course of 80 rubles. the dollar translated into rubles campaign budget winners in single-seat district will average about 100 million rubles.
The cost is calculated in dollars, because many of the costs dollar – rising prices for paper, ink and other imported goods required campaign, Bystrov said. In connection with the devaluation of the ruble expenditures in rubles increased, he said.
quick to point out that when calculating the need to take into account the factor of competition in the area, as the situation in Chechnya is significantly different from St. Petersburg and the Sverdlovsk region. The higher the competition, the more expensive the campaign.
Political technologist recalled that at the Moscow City Duma elections the most expensive election campaigns were held in the district №5 with the most acute political competition, which ran Maxim Katz, Oleg Soroka and Sergei Baburin.
So Bystrov proposed to introduce turbulence coefficient from 0.5 to 1.5 – it is quite possible that there will be the county where the campaign will be cheap enough in the absence of strong competition and to win them enough to half of the said amount. Such districts he took to regions with low competition, such as the Kemerovo region, Belgorod region, the subjects of the North Caucasus.
Price victory in the election for governor
The candidates for governor and political parties have less to spend on electoral campaigns, according to the report “political technology the results of the regional elections 2015″. The average cost of gubernatorial elections has decreased in half to two times depending on the region, argues the report. In the past year the cost of elections, the head of “medium-sized northwest region” has made about 150 million rubles., This year the price of a comparable area was less than 100 million rubles., Told RBC is one of the drafters of the report. Gubernatorial election in the large Siberian region this year, worth 300 million rubles. In another similar region of Siberia in the past year, the campaign has cost more than 350 million rubles., While the dollar exchange rate was considerably lower, adds the source RBC.
The report attributed the price decline to two factors : reduction of the financial capacity of candidates and parties, as well as a decrease in the attractiveness of seats for representatives of business. It is a tacit ban authorities to use the deputy mandate to meet the business interests, explains Minchenko.
In the districts of Moscow and St. Petersburg, as well as in Chelyabinsk and Nizhny Novgorod regions, on the other hand, the coefficient Turbulence can reach 1.5, he said.
From the calculations agree Bystrov political scientist and director of the International Centre for Political Expertise Yevgeny Minchenko.
During the summer he had a higher valuation of the campaign in a single-mandate district but in the deteriorating economic situation Minchenko expect that politicians will have to tighten their belts, so the 2016 figures will be about the same.
The allowed limit of the election fund of single-mandate, which by law is 15 million rubles., objectively less than the amount needed to win in the district, say political scientists. They insist that it is necessary to increase the limit.
According to the electoral lawyer Tatyana Lushnikova, the value of winning the district average really is 100-150 million rubles., If all costs monetize. However, the work can be done by employing intangible assets. In the election campaign, four resource: the candidate’s identity, time, people and money, said the expert, and they are to some extent can be replaced each other. For example, starting the campaign before the official launch, you can spend more time and use less money.
According to Minchenko, the easiest legal way to circumvent the limit of the election fund – an early start of the campaign, when the time of the formal start of the campaign at the end of June Candidate enters the recognition in the district with a rating of over 50%. Since his official campaign can be conducted in the background. In this sense, the primaries procedure, which does not provide for restrictions on the level of funding – a good move, he said. Before the application of the candidate to the election commission of its activity is not regulated by law.
Bystrov said that to solve the problem of insufficient amount allowed for financing the campaign can also be through the application of agitators and consultants on a voluntary basis – the law does not forbid it. The fund can go to pay for printed materials and advertising in the media, he added.
Political technologist Andrey Bogdanov sure that 100 million rubles. – The price of the campaign for a very recognizable figure. When it comes to malouznavaemom man in the county, this figure at least doubled, he said. Moreover, if the candidate comes from the “United Russia”, and participated in the primaries, his expenses will automatically grow, said Bogdanov.
Political scientists are interested to earn money, so somewhat overstate the cost of the campaign, said State Duma deputy Dmitry Gudkov that in September, plans for re-election in one of the districts of Moscow.
Gudkov evaluates your campaign about 45 million rubles., but the price may be higher for beginners who are forced to seek political consultants, recruit a team and talk about themselves to voters , he said. In addition, much depends on the start of recognition candidate and his popularity, he added. The MP stressed that he expected to focus on fundraising.
Duma elections will be held September 18, 2016. Half of the seats will be distributed according to party lists, half – from single-mandate constituencies.
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