the Rupture of Russian-American cooperation on Syria opens the way for implementation of the power scenario in which the warring parties can be Moscow and Washington. On Tuesday, the defense Ministry announced about the transfer to Syria of additional air defense systems (batteries of anti-aircraft missile system s-300V4), and the foreign Ministry accused the United States of his readiness “to conclude a deal with the devil” — to provide support to terrorists. In turn, the press Secretary of the White house Josh Ernest said that the transfer of air defense systems to Syria contradicts previous statements of Moscow on the quest to fight estremisti: he recalled that armed Islamic radicals aviation there. Today, the main question is, will decide whether President Obama on the use of force, which would mean a Declaration of war on Syria, or the United States limited the armed opposition and the increasing political pressure on Moscow to curtail the operation of Russian air force.
From “deal with the devil” before the defense systems
the US administration’s Decision to unilaterally terminate the cooperation with Russia in Syria not only brought an end to the diplomatic efforts of Moscow and Washington in recent months, but has eliminated the main obstacle for the transition to a force scenario. This new reality on Tuesday declared the Russian foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov, warned: the responsibility for the failure of the Russian-American agreements are their opponents in the US administration who “are hatching plans for a military scenario”. Its implementation in Syria on Tuesday and actively talking in Moscow and Washington.
In a statement on Tuesday, the foreign Ministry of the Russian Federation focuses on the threat of the U.S.’s transition to the active support of the radical Syrian opposition. “We have a growing impression that the desire to achieve the coveted regime change in Damascus, Washington is ready “to conclude a deal with the devil” — to go into an Alliance with notorious terrorists,” warned the foreign Ministry.
And the Fox News channel produced a story in which, with reference to three nenazvany American sources reported the transfer by Russia to Syria of air defense systems s-300VM.
the article States that the Russian system allow for the interception of aircraft and cruise missiles, in service with the United States.
the Official representative of the defense Ministry Igor Konashenkov on Tuesday confirmed that the Syrian port of Tartus delivered battery anti-aircraft missile system s-300. According to the General Konashenkov, it needs “to ensure the safety of the item located there logistics and located in the coastal area of the ships of the Russian Navy”. The representative of the Ministry of defense assured that it was “a purely defensive system, anyone are not a threat” and informed the same action does not cause problems. Recall that after the destruction of the Turkish air force of a Russian bomber su-24M in November 2015 Hamim at the airbase in Latakia province was a division deployed anti-aircraft missile system s-400 “Triumph”, and patrolling off the coast of Syria were involved in rocket cruiser of the black sea fleet “Moscow”, equipped with long-range Maritime air defense system S-300F.
According to the Kommersant source in the Russian defense Ministry, the deployment of the s-300V4 in Tartus was conducted over the last two weeks with the help of large amphibious ships, “Nicholas phylchenkov”, “George”, “Caesar Kunikov” and “Alexander Shabalin” and support vessels. According to the interlocutor of “Kommersant”, the decision on strengthening the defense group in Syria, adopted “on the basis of the deteriorating situation in the region, agreed with the highest military-political leadership of the country.”
As said on Tuesday at a briefing the press Secretary of the White house Josh Ernest, the transfer of s-300 systems to Syria contradicts previous statements of Moscow about the fact that this country is Russia going to fight with extremists. “I don’t know that the “Islamic state” or “al-Qaeda” (both groups are banned in Russia.— “B”) have aircraft,”— said Mr. Ernest. He also said that the US “continues to discuss with foreign partners” possible sanctions against Moscow in connection with its policy in Syria.
Psychological pressure on the verge of hostilities
“the Risk of Russian-American “unexpected” clashes in Syria and the incidents in other regions along the new lines of confrontation in Europe has increased. Such a collision can be extremely dangerous”,— explained “Kommersant” Director of the Moscow Carnegie center Dmitri Trenin. In his opinion, in the event of a further escalation in response to the impact of Russian VKS US allies in the Syrian opposition “can receive funds that represent a real threat to Russian aircraft and helicopters”. In Moscow it will be perceived as the beginning of the implementation of the “warnings” representative of the state Department of the USA John Kirby, made last week.
the Most radical scenario, involving the U.S.’s transition to large-scale military action against Damascus, according to Mr. Trenin, is unlikely. “In Washington understand: in this case, Russian forces based in Syria is not likely to remain on the sidelines. This will mean an exchange already not verbal, but the bombing attacks, in fact, a war. This realization must act sobering”,— says Dmitry Trenin.
With the view that a radical scenario in Syria can be avoided, the consent of the head of the PIR Center, Lieutenant-General Evgeny Buzhinsky. “Conditions for a direct military clash between Russia and the United States, I do not see. For the Obama administration still has serious limitations, not allowing it to use in Syria the US armed forces in full”,— says Mr. Buzhinsky.
“Potentially one can imagine that the Americans start to bomb Syrian facilities with cruise missiles, as they did in Yugoslavia and Libya, and in this situation it will be hard. The US has an obvious advantage in the number of cruise missiles based on submarines, ships and airplanes. Shoot them down is not easy, and to expend the capability of the s-300 is irrational. However, such a scenario would mean that the United States entered the war with Syria. While in Yugoslavia for the operation was the decision of NATO in Libya — UN security Council resolution in Syria, as such a step if it gets made, will be solely by the will of Washington”,— explained “Kommersant” Evgeny Buzhinsky. In his opinion, “Nobel laureate Obama will not do it”.
“the Most likely scenario — the supply of weapons to the Syrian opposition and increased international pressure on Moscow to curtail the operation of Russian VKS”— suggests “Kommersant” Mr. Buzhinsky.
the Possibility of implementing “plan B”, which includes attacks on government troops storming the Eastern neighborhoods of Aleppo, not less actively discussed in Washington. Answering the question “Kommersant”, how real he seems such a scenario, the us Director of the Center for the national interest Dimitri Simes said, “I heard from the staff of the national security Council that this possibility (of attacks by the Syrian army.— "B") is discussed. But I heard also that the chiefs of staff treats him skeptically. This would suppress the Russian air force, and it could lead to war. So this option is unlikely.”
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