One-third of the current State Duma has high chances for re-election in single-mandate constituencies in 2016, shows the joint research fund ISSI and Promotion Center lawmaking.
The chances of the “big four”
The greatest number of deputies can perform successfully in the upcoming elections, “United Russia” – 73 deputies of the faction of 238 can look forward to a new term. The report notes that more than others EdRo factions have a chance to improve the current result. Among the Communist Party to the successful performance in the area willing to 26 out of 92 deputies, and “Fair Russia” 25 out of 64 parliamentarians may take place in the new composition of the Duma. The lowest proportion of “walk-through” odnomandatnikov the Liberal Democratic Party, but in this case it is related to the election of the party Strahov, which traditionally relies on election from party lists.
“In addition, in 2011 the Liberal Democratic Party first of the major parties went to drastic rejuvenation of the Duma faction, allowing Vladimir Zhirinovsky prepare several young MPs to campaign for the forthcoming federal districts and the first opposition party has decided to issue the presence in the lists of candidates of big business. In a sense, in 2011 anticipated the popular trends of the Liberal Democratic Party election in 2016. Low Floor districts LDPR deputatami- acting on a background of stable federal ratings LDPR (according to the national polls, the party is almost level with the Communist Party) – gives reason to believe that the Liberal Democratic Party will be interested in the “new politics” and social worker patriotic views, overgrown level Regional and urban policies for the nomination in the districts “- the study says.
Features of the upcoming elections
The main feature of a single day of voting (EDG) in 2016 he will immediately return the elections in single-mandate constituencies, from which the party managed to break the habit during the absence of the counties in the electoral system of the country. Since then the situation in the country on many factors has changed – changed the boundaries of municipalities, there have been demographic changes, increased urbanization rate, and the number of subjects of the Russian Federation has changed. All this may affect both the future adjustment of the boundaries of single-member districts, and the strategy of the elections in the territories. The report notes that in these circumstances, large parties can begin to negotiate with each other.
“There are cross-party agreement on the cultivation of their kandidatov-” heavyweights “for different districts within the same region (or even for a group of regions” package agreement “). In this case, reduce the likelihood of the scenario” stripping “votes from each other by two strong candidates, in which the District with a slight advantage can win the” dark horse “or” third force. “Another possible strategy for the coalition parties – under the current form deputata- “heavyweight” less chances in the county suitable inter-regional group to an active campaign for the group areas and in parliament on the list, giving up his nomination in the district against a rating deputy from the party – a rival “- the study says.
The document explains that studies such as presented, will be of the nature and periodicity will be part of the cycle “rating – 2016″. Prospects deputies going to the State Duma, “the lists”, promise to present later.
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