The Crimean consolidation of parliamentary parties can be maintained and the elections in 2016
Mass Duma elections in single-mandate constituencies have not been conducted in Russia 2003.
Photo by Yuri Mashkov / TASS
For single-mandate election ready at least 148 deputies of the State Duma today. This is stated in a special report of the Institute for Socio-Economic and Political Studies (ISSI). Experts yesterday suggested that the current good relations of all the parliamentary parties, the existing past year and a half, during the Duma campaign in 2016 could result in the coordination between the winning districts.
Most of the potential single-mandate, of course, a part of the faction “United Russia” – 76 party, and even her five deputies in 2016 can run from small politstruktur. For example, the leader of “Rodina” Alexey Zhuravlev, or Duma deputy Yevgeny Fyodorov, the governing National Liberation Movement, which overlooks the pickets against the liberals.
But as a percentage of the parliamentary opposition and the ruling party are not far behind. If possible odnomandatniki United Russia – a fraction of 32%, then the Communist Party, they make up 28%. At the Liberal Democratic Party, of course, smaller – 21%, but the “Fair Russia” ahead of all. Here, experts have counted 25 members (out of 64 – “NG”), which may go to the district from the party, and in addition, it formally including such policies as Oksana Dmitrieva and Valery Zubov, who can go to the State Duma, or the seventh from small parties, or as a self-promoted. In general, all this amounts to 45% of fractions. The question, however, is whether the leader is going and CP Sergei Mironov to promote the election of all of these potential candidates or had some other plans.
For example, as already reported, “NG”, to call for the cooperation of opinion leaders (the so-called dray. – “NG”), which operate in specific areas, and often is already in the All-Russia People’s Front. By the way, the theme of the participation of the ONF in yesterday’s report, ISEP will not be affected. According to the Fund Dmitry Badovsky, this kind of research will be carried out after they are made clear in the general election party strategy. And they will begin to take shape this fall – with the adoption of the law on cutting single-member districts.
It is this document, note, will be a serious test of strength for the so-called Crimean consolidation of all four parliamentary parties that emerged six years ago on the basis of their agreement with the accession of Russia to the peninsula. The fact is that before – in the 90s and the beginning of zero (the last single-mandate elections in the State Duma passed in 2003. – “NG”) – the party in power, no matter how it was called, has always tried to tailor the county can be more profitable for both themselves. Repeated the story 13 years later, we can not say for sure yet.
However, the report ISSI has a hint of what is now this may not happen. “There are cross-party agreement on the cultivation of their candidates heavyweights on different districts within the same region (or even for a group of regions – the” package agreement “)”, – experts say. The fact is that when preparing its study on the basis of legislative and information activity of the current deputies, their participation in this year’s campaign, ISSI found that representatives of the various parties in the Duma are collected in the same regions of Russia.
If consultations on the distribution of districts still to be conducted, it will reduce stripping voices strong candidates that will pave the way “dark horse” or “third force”, warned in ISEP. It appears that this is an indirect proof that the fund experienced professionals understand: the Communist Party, the Liberal Democratic Party, CP, and even, apparently, EP in 2016 will largely apply, in fact, one and the same electorate – adjusted pro-Putin and patriotic. No wonder one of the options interest breeding experts consider the possibility of establishing for the weaker contender strong regional sub-groups in the list of a political party. The fact whether the list in the designated regions of Russia it is open the “green light” in the report, of course, does not say. But the possibility of non-use of administrative resources against some of the Duma opposition parties, in this context, of course, is meant.
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