close to the Kremlin Foundation ISEP submitted lists of the 148 deputies of the State Duma who have a high chance of re-election in the next convocation of the parliament from single-mandate constituencies. In order to “dissolve” strong candidates from different parties in the same region, experts recommend ISEP parties agree.
close to the Kremlin ISEP Fund has prepared a list of the 148 deputies of the State Duma, which are high chances to win in single-mandate constituencies during the federal campaign in 2016. Experts stress that these policies not necessarily go to the polls as candidates in majority districts, it is only of their potential. “They have a corresponding recognizable and serious chance of a good result,” – explains the director of research at ISEP Alexander compassion.
In 2016, in majority districts will be elected half of the composition of the lower house of parliament. 148 deputies – it is about a third of the current composition of the Duma.
The study is based on estimates of IMF experts ISSI and Promotion Center lawmaking (TSSZ). The most promising single-mandate predictably found the “United Russia” 76 deputies from 238 (32%). In the Communist Party in the elections 26 MPs are ready (28%), among the Socialist-Revolutionaries – 25 (39%), the Liberal Democratic Party – 12 (21%).
Such a high percentage of potentially promising candidates from the Socialist-Revolutionaries total amount due to the fact that the “Fair Russia” is traditionally formed by powerful single-seat districts.
«In turn, the stability of the federal Liberal Democratic ratings suggest that the party is interested in the” new politics “and social worker patriotic views that escalated the level of regional and urban policies for the nomination in the districts” – suggests the Chairman of the Board ISSI Directors Dmitry Badovsky.
In the five locomotives from each party
Experts identify five “single-mandate-locomotive” for each party, which can not only go to the polls in majority districts, but also at the same time lead the territorial groups of the party list.
Among United Russia is: Secretary of the General Council Sergei Neverov Party, State Duma Speaker Sergei Naryshkin, head of the faction, Vladimir Vasilyev, head of the Duma committee Andrei Makarov, Co-Chair of the central headquarters ONF Olga Timofeeva.
«locomotive” of the Communist Party, according to experts, is the first deputy of the Central Committee of the Communist Party Ivan Melnikov, First Vice – Chairman of the Committee on Education Oleg Smolin, a member of the Central Committee of the Communist Party Valery Rashkin, chairman of the Committee on Regional Policy and the North and the Far East, Nikolai Kharitonov, chairman of the Defense Committee Vladimir Komoyedov.
Five of the Socialist-Revolutionaries: a member of the presidium of the central council of “Fair Russia” Galina Khovanskaya, deputy head of the faction Valery Hartung, secretary of the presidium of the central council of the party, Alexander Burkov, Chairman of the Duma committee on economic policy, Anatoly Aksakov, the secretary of the presidium of the central council of the party on national policy Fedot Tumusov.
Finally, the Liberal Democratic Party in the top-5 are the first deputy chairman of the committee on budget and taxes Sergei Katasonov, a member of the supreme council of the Liberal Democratic Party Yaroslav Nilov, a member of the Committee for Security and Anti-Corruption Dmitry Nosov, Chairman of the Committee on Health Sergei Kalashnikov, a member of the supreme council of the Liberal Democratic Party Mikhail Degtyarev.
In the ranking of a number of candidates ISEP fixed specific promising territory. For example, Sergei Naryshkin, according to research, it makes sense to run in the Leningrad region, while Sergei Neverov is “the favorite in the district for the different areas.” Experts explain that this is due to the federal-known politician and his experience of participating in the elections in different regions.
According to experts, 40-45% among the districts of the State Duma deputies is no obvious “favorites” to win the election by the majority system. “While justified expectations that the districts would be among the winners a lot of new people to the federal policy, a hundred, or even more,” – says Pozhalov.
In addition, according to experts, because of the “shortage of candidates heavyweights” of the parliamentary opposition should think about that in a number of single-mandate constituencies as MPs were previously fallen into the Federation Council, or those who are preparing to go in the “coalition strategy.”
This is true, for example, the Liberal Democrats Sergei Kalashnikov, who is going to support the gubernatorial candidate of the “United Russia” Alexander Bogomazov. In a similar situation the senator from Primorsky Territory Svetlana Goryachev (“Fair Russia”). However, in the present study ISEP considered valid only for the State Duma.
The head of the Department of Regional Studies Center for Political Technologies, Rostislav Turovsky questions the search for promising single-seat districts in the Federation Council. “The meaning of the Translation of the deputy in the Federation Council is to just hold the rotation of the State Duma. There is usually no way back, “- said the expert.
From the current deputies of the parliamentary factions were identified potential candidates for single-mandate, which are able to run on other, smaller parties. In the “United Russia” of five candidates: Alexei Zhuravlev (the party “Motherland”), Elena Vtorygina (“Homeland” or the “Russian Party of Pensioners of spravedlivlost”), Sergey Vostretsov (“Labor Party of Russia”), Vyacheslav Lysakov (“Car Party Russia “), Evgeny Fedorov (leader of NOD).
Among the “Fair Russia” four potential: Oksana Dmitrieva (Party of National Security), Igor Zotov (Russian Party of Pensioners for Justice), Valery Zubov and Sergei Petrov (can be run from one of the liberal parties, or as a self-promoted ).
«Showdown counties»
All deputies represented in the rankings, to receive a mandate clearly can not. For example, from the Tula region is allocated four candidates, while in 2003 the region could pass only three single-mandate deputies.
ISSI experts identify several promising strategies work in the districts for parliamentary parties. Firstly, there may be agreement on the “breeding” of heavyweight candidates for different districts within the same region. “This will reduce the likelihood of the scenario” stripping “votes from each other two strong candidates who can win in which” dark horse “- says Badovskiy.
Another option – the refusal “deputy heavyweight” from participating in the elections on single-mandate constituency in favor of the campaign for the territorial list if the region is represented by a ranking candidate from another party. “Finally, we can not exclude that some federal MPs would be acceptable transition to the regional parliament,” – concludes Badovskiy.
The expert suggests that the parties will start discussing strategies coalition after the next provincial elections and publication schemes “slicing districts,” and this time the list of potential single-mandate may change.
Rostislav Turovsky believes that coalitions will be fundamentally important position of “United Russia”. “If she would agree in some districts give way to the place of another party or a coalition of other parties, in this case, this coalition will work”, – said Turovsky. The expert believes that the party in power at the moment the starting positions in the regions is much stronger and it is easier to work in single-member districts.
Political analyst Yevgeny Minchenko, in turn, believes that the “showdown in the counties’ election will add competition. The expert believes that to draw conclusions on a number of potential candidates is too early: “Now we can say that people have some basic ratings of the regions. But their outlook depends largely on the cutting districts. There are candidates who four months before the elections were generally unknown. ”
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