Sergei Lavrov arrived in Minsk in the midst of another “gas war” between the two capitals of the Union State. The reason for the conflict is that each of the parties in their own way interpret a bilateral agreement on natural gas. Official Minsk insists on his – “fair” – formula, formation rate ($ 73 per 1,000 cubic meters), and refuses to pay the required “Gazprom” prices. The Belarusian side is dissatisfied with a sharp reduction in the difference between the price of gas to Eastern Europe and the “allied”, as it reduces the competitiveness of Belarusian products. Besides, Belarus is forced to pay for Russian gas in US dollars, while the Belarusian products on the Russian market are sold for rubles
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Price thousand cubic meters of Russian gas for Ukraine – $ 230 for Belarus – $ 132. But the Minsk wants for $ 80, with hindsight. Based on this policy, the Belarusian companies have ceased to pay the full bill for raw materials supplied “Gazprom” to the beginning of the year. Their debt to the Russian supplier has reached $ 125 million, says the head of the Russian Ministry of Energy. “We do not have any debt, we pay in accordance with the intergovernmental agreement,” – he responds to him in absentia dispute his Belarusian counterpart Vladimir Potupchik. As a result, “Gazprom” has filed a lawsuit to arbitration court in Minsk, achieving the Belarusian enterprises pay the debt.
Today the Belarusian energy by more than 80% dependent on Russian gas, as, indeed, and very power-intensive industry of the country .
The importance of gas supplies to Minsk is such that all the other topics of bilateral relations is now overshadowed. But at the Union Council of Ministers on May 12 this theme did not sound – as if it is not
It seems that the problem has to decide on behalf of the Kremlin personally Lavrov.. After meeting on Monday with Lukashenko, the Russian minister said diplomatically before the cameras: “Questions arise between any States allies. But unlike our relationship is that these questions honestly, we put in front of our friends and partners. And always understand each other, although sometimes solutions are sought not for one day ».
Meanwhile, observers in Minsk noted that the Belarusian side deliberately goes to the exacerbation of conflicts such as the current” gas ».
The Belarusian leadership skillfully plays on the fact that today Russia is, in fact, practically left without foreign “friends”, and the official Minsk under the brand “loyalty to allied relations in the face of the insidious West” successfully solves its economic problems . by the Kremlin
«We see just another act of” marlezonskogo ballet “- the endless search Belarus new tranches of funding under the brand integration with Russia. All of the past 22 years for Lukashenko integration with Russia – this is not a goal but a means to obtain financing. At the same time supply of energy here in the first place, especially since in 2014-2015 the Russian market because of the crisis was closed for Belarusian manufacturers – said “Gazeta.ru” the Belarusian politician Olga Karachi. – Who is the foreign trade of Belarus in general falls, due to the unfavorable situation on the market in the first quarter of the country received less nearly a billion dollars on the two key export commodities – oil products and potash fertilizers. But the social component of the budget expenditures will not risk cutting Lukashenko. So, the task:. “Knock out” the money from Moscow »
The hostages European missile defense
It is as a kind of hostage turned out to Belarus after the 12 May the United States entered into force in Romania, the first facility of its missile defense and started construction of a second in Poland. Belarusians that its history regularly find themselves between two fires, strained to hear Vladimir Putin’s statement on May 13 that Russia will think about how to eliminate this danger (the American missile defense facilities).
Many feared that now Russia will insist not only on the deployment in Belarus air base, but also to return to the republic retired in 1996, the nuclear medium-range missiles, as well as on the deployment on the territory of Belarus, “Iskander” in the those with nuclear warheads
. «missile defense: the Kremlin will respond deployment airbases and” Iskander “in Belarus”, “whether Belarus will be Russian nuclear base?”, “Lavrov arrived in Minsk to talk about the European missile defense and Ukraine “- with such titles out independent Belarusian media
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Sergey Lavrov arrived in Minsk, added fuel to the fire. Russian Foreign Minister stated , that Russia and Belarus are concerned that NATO forces the confrontation and promoting its infrastructure to the east. “In matters of European security, we share the concern about the fact that our colleagues from NATO countries are trying to impose on us a confrontation, moved to our infrastructure to the east, close to our borders,” – Lavrov said after talks with Foreign Minister of Belarus Vladimir Makey.
it is clear that the situation is very favorable: Russia can offer supply almost twice cheaper gas in exchange for Belarus to provide its territory for Russian military facilities. Sort of “an offer you can not refuse.” In Minsk, however, pre-made “preemptive move”: on the eve of Lavrov’s arrival there have hinted that a few would be good to limit the presence of the Russian media in the Belarusian media space. “Contents of the Russian Federation in Belarus today comes to 65%, this we can not but cause concern in terms of national culture, information security,” – said in an interview with the Belarus state television in the evening May 15 the deputy head of the presidential administration of Belarus Igor Buzovsky
However, experts still reserved about the possibility of Russia accommodation in Belarus tactical nuclear weapons or non-nuclear “Iskander».
«Subject accommodation Russian air base in Belarus, as well as other Russian forces, I think, will be seriously discussed both during Lavrov’s visit, and during subsequent negotiations. But the realism of the placement of such a base is becoming less likely, – says Victor Evmenenko expert analysis project Belarus Security Blog. – Minsk will continue to insist that Russia passed its weapons, and we as a faithful ally will protect the air and another space of the Union State. The leadership of Belarus is well aware that the placement of Russian combat units on its territory poses a serious danger to national security, which all began to talk more often. For now, though without loud statements, everything is done to “Donbass” scenario was not repeated in Belarus, as indicated by changes in the legislation, as well as the strengthening of special units and personnel changes in the security agencies, which are the last two years. »
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