President Putin the decree has suspended the Russian-American agreement on the disposal of weapons-grade plutonium. The renewal agreement is possible with the lifting of sanctions and the implementation of a number of the same malopolski conditions. Experts call it a new round of the undeclared cold war
“due To the radical changes”
the text of the decree Vladimir Putin on 3 October said that the decision was made “in connection with a fundamental change of circumstances, the threats to strategic stability in the result of the hostile actions of the United States of America against the Russian Federation and the inability of the United States to fulfil obligations for the disposal of excess weapons-grade plutonium in accordance with international treaties, and also based on the need for urgent measures to protect the security of the Russian Federation”.
return to the agreement named in the explanatory note to the bill on its suspension. All of these five conditions, four of them virtually impossible at the current stage of Russian-American relations. Russia demands reduction of the American contingent in the NATO countries to the level of 2000, the failure of the US “hostile policy” against Russia, the abolition of the “Magnitsky act”, the lifting of US sanctions and compensation of losses of Russia from sanctions and the forced imposition of counter-sanctions (the amount of damage the document does not specify), and provide a clear plan of irreversible plutonium disposition.
the Russian foreign Ministry explained the suspension of a contract was “unwarranted expectations”. In the message of the diplomatic Department says that the agreement entered into force in the Wake of the reboot, but “the Obama administration has done everything to destroy the atmosphere of trust that would encourage cooperation, in particular after the reunification of the Crimea with Russia, the U.S. administration “made a series of hostile steps aimed at a direct undermining of our economy and social stability”.
the Agreement was signed at the most inopportune moment for Russia, in severe including from an economic point of view. Therefore, it is completely logical, I’m sure the Chairman of the Duma Committee on international Affairs Leonid Kalashnikov. “All the agreements on nuclear disarmament was incorrect, you must return to the system which existed before 1990, during the previous cold war,” said RBC Deputy from the Communist party.
the debate about technology
the Need of a contract concluded in 2000, was due to the fact that the warheads that were removed from combat duty in the process of reduction of nuclear Arsenal of Russia and the United States, had a lot of weapons-grade plutonium — a total of about 34 T.
“Although the number of warheads was limited, the plutonium remained, and it was always possible to build nuclear capabilities back. In this regard, an agreement was signed by which the plutonium had to be withdrawn from circulation and put into the form where its further use would be impossible,” — said the Director of the program “Russia and nuclear nonproliferation,”-PIR Center Andrey baklitskiy.
But then discord began. The parties undertook to carry out the disposal method of irradiation of MOX fuel in power reactors. In Russia for these purposes in Zheleznogorsk (Krasnoyarsk region) has built a plant for processing plutonium and introduced the bn-800 reactor of Beloyarsk NPP (Sverdlovsk region). In the United States considered that this method is too costly and stopped the construction of a similar complex in South Carolina. The head of Rosatom Sergey Kiriyenko in an interview with NTV estimated the cost of construction of the Russian plant of $ 240 million it is estimated that Americans spent $ 7 billion on an unfinished production in South Carolina.
Recognizing method is too costly and unpromising, the US authorities have proposed a method in which the plutonium will be mixed with radioactive waste, but not used as fuel for the reactor, and do the burial in the ground. “We say that it does not suit us, because it contradicts the terms of the agreement. This method does not modify the isotopic state of the plutonium, it can be removed and used for nuclear weapons,” explains the Russian position leading researcher of the Center for the study of problems of disarmament, energy and ecology Vladimir Rybachenkov.
in April this year, shortly after the publication of “the Panama papers,” Putin said, answering questions about offshore companies and relations with cellist Sergey Roldugin, for the first time publicly thought of the Treaty on plutonium. “Our partners must understand that a joke is a joke and their work on promotion of information products directed against Russia is one thing, but serious questions, especially in the field of nuclear weapons is an entirely different, and you need to be able to fulfill its obligations”, — said the President of Russia.
Political implications
the nuclear safety Experts believe that suspension of the agreement will have significant consequences for both parties. Andrey baklitskiy, in particular, is confident that the built in Zheleznogorsk plant close is not necessary. “We are now actively developing direction, considering that this is the future of nuclear energy,” he says. — Fuel in any case will need. In the event of termination we will not be limited neither by time nor by volume. Fuel production will be carried out, but in the form in which it is necessary for the reactor”.
Director of the center for energy and security Anton Khlopkov sure that the suspension by Russia of action of the international agreement on recycling does not mean that nuclear fuel scheduled for demolition, will now be used in new weapons. “The presidential decree States that all materials scheduled for recycling, remain out of weapons programmes. Therefore, the decree of the President absolutely does not mean that Russia gets these 34 tons of military-nuclear program,” — says the expert.
So we should talk more about the political subtext of the decision of the Russian President. Executive Director, Russian international Affairs Council Andrey Kortunov draws attention to the fact that earlier the US and Russia have always tried to separate nuclear security from the political, and now, on the contrary, is to link political progress with the execution of the agreement, which would complicate progress.
political Analyst Vasily Zharkov considers that Putin’s decision not taken by chance just now. “The context of this decision is clear: a report on “the Boeing” on which Russia essentially, in addition to denial, there is nothing to say, the factor of elections in the United States and possible uncertainty (as may think in Moscow) foreign policy of Washington” — says the expert. In this situation the Russian side it is important to stress: “We will resist and we have the resources”. Selected nuclear topic as emphasizing Russia’s status as a great power. Marked field for bargaining — sanctions (especially solo). But understanding from the West, this approach will not cause”.
At the same Zharkov doubt that as a result of the ultimatum of Moscow, the United States will lift sanctions. “It will be a long confrontation in which the winner is the one who has more resources and stronger nerves. And if the resources were clear, with nerves so there is no clarity. In fact, we are seeing the next round in the undeclared cold war,” he says.
By Monday evening there was a message from the United States about the suspension of bilateral cooperation with Russia over the fighting in Syria. “We cannot say that this decision was easy,” said state Department spokesman John Kirby.
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