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Interfax-Russia.ru – Truck “Progress” after the launch from Baikonur went into orbit much higher settlement and could not dock with the ISS. Attempts to rectify the situation or to have failed.
The cargo vehicle “Progress M-27M” launched from Baikonur by a carrier rocket “Soyuz-2.1a” April 28 at 10:09. The space “truck” was to deliver necessary for the flight crew of the International Space Station (ISS), fuel, oxygen, equipment for scientific experiments, parcels for cosmonauts and astronauts and gifts for members of the crew for the upcoming holidays, as well as food.
Who shall watch the international ISS crew of Russian Gennady Padalka, Mikhail Kornienko, Anton Shkaplerova, NASA astronauts Scott Kelly and Terry miles, and European Space Agency astronaut Italians Samantha Kristoforetti.
Gone no plan
It was originally planned that six hours after the start of the cargo ship should dock with the ISS. However, shortly after the separation of the ship from the third stage of the launch vehicle with “truck” has ceased to act telemetry information. “The ship is in sight, but the telemetry information is not received from it. Experts trying to find out why,” – said the agency “Interfax-AVN,” a source in the space industry.
Later in the Mission Control Center received confirmation that on the cargo ship opened solar panels, but did not open the antenna. “Solar opened normally, but did not open exchange antenna. Because of this, most likely, does not come to earth telemetry” – suggested interlocutor of the agency.
It was found that the carrier rocket “Soyuz-2.1a “withdrew” Progress M-27M “to a higher orbit than planned. “According to the MCC,” truck “was higher than 30 km from the calculated orbit,” – said a source in the space industry, adding that MCC held a meeting of experts to analyze the situation.
Because of the emergency situation specialists MCC decided to carry out the convergence of the cargo ship “Progress M-27M” with the ISS for a two-night scheme.
The interviewee noted that the experts “based on indirect evidence” concluded that the crew on board the ship arrive. “Analysis of the parameters of the orbit indicates that the ship did not automatically two maneuvers planned cyclogram flight to first turn around the Earth. Obviously, automation, fixing contingency, given the abolition of the maneuvers to carry out” – suggested the source in the space industry.
According to him, the main task of MCC – to establish stable communication with the ship to get on board telemetry information. “Without this, no maneuvers with the vehicle possible, as well as docking with the ISS,” – said the source.
At the same time, he noted that the height of the orbit of the cargo ship enough to stay on it for a long time . “Therefore, the MCC professionals have some leeway to resolve the situation and to ensure reliable control of the ship,” – said the official.
Experts have the opportunity to pass on board the “Progress” package of necessary programs, but they must at the same time make sure that the equipment they perceived as it should. “That is, to obtain confirmation of the automation,” – said the source.
Meanwhile, as reported by the agency “Interfax-AVN” the expert, who asked to remain anonymous, if in the coming hours skilled MCC can not be established with it steady communication and to raise the orbit of the settlement, the cargo spacecraft could be lost.
“According to reports, the ship’s orbit perigee, that is, the lowest point is about 120-130 km. Thus, the ship” catches “atmosphere”, – said the agency, noting that the ship, which moves with the first cosmic speed (about 7.9 km / sec), the passage of the dense layers of the atmosphere heats up and loses speed.
will not be able to dock
By the evening of April 28 Mission Control Center specialists have concluded that the cargo ship “Progress M-27M” will not be able for a two-day circuit to reach the ISS.
“These videos from the ship indicate that it is very rotates on its axis. Experts Mission Control Center issues a command to its stabilization, but whether it was possible to do it is not yet clear, “- said the agency” Interfax-AVN “in the space industry.
According to the source, the satellite made the fifth round after launch and during the following turns the ship will no longer be in sight terrestrial radio, so the next session with them will be possible only in the second half of the night on April 29.
In this case, the expert said that with each new round chances of survival “progress” reduced. “If the ship is not able to save, it will happen uncontrollable and uncontrolled decayed. In this case, the fall zone of unburned debris in the atmosphere could be anywhere in the range between 52 degrees south and 52 degrees north latitude “- a spokesman said.
However, the Russian Space Agency said that the problem “progress” solved. “He is on the orbit, which we expected. There are some problems with the telemetry data. But they are eliminated by specialists Roscosmos. He is on the orbit, which is given, “- said the radio station” Russian news service “representative of Roskosmos Igor Bourenkov.
He said that” solar panels were opened, there are problems, but they are solved, you just have wait “.
On the night of April 29, the Russian MCC made two attempts to establish a stable relationship with a cargo ship.” On board the “progress” has been transferred several teams, aimed at stabilizing its position and reduce the rotation around own axis. Now comes the analysis of the data. According to preliminary information, the problem has not been resolved, “- said the agency” Interfax-AVN, “a source in the Mission Control Center.
Then, MCC experts made several attempts to take control of the ship.” The question of the possibility of joining “truck” and ISS is not worth it. The main thing – to provide his more or less controlled and safe de-orbiting, “- said the official.
However, attempts to restore the orientation of the spacecraft and to stop its rotation around its axis to no avail.” The last attempt to bring the situation under control failed. Resolved longer attempt not to repeat, “- he said the agency” Interfax-AVN “in the space industry
The interviewee noted that the ship started to decrease spontaneous:” The expected fall of the debris on the ground – from 7 to 11 May “. At the same time, he said, experts of the Russian space monitoring system will continuously monitor the ship’s descent from orbit and will be able to for a few hours before the fall unburned into the dense layers of the atmosphere to give an updated forecast of the debris of time and the crash site.
According to experts, unburned in the atmosphere craft design fragments can fall anywhere in the zone, located along the equator and bounded on the north and south parallels 52.
Meanwhile, the US Air Force Space Center based on ” Vandenberg “in California has recorded 44 fragments in orbit near the cargo ship” Progress M-27M “and the third-stage rocket” Soyuz-2.1a, “said Lt. Gen. Jay Raymond.
However, the space the center can not yet confirm whether the fragments belong directly to “progress” and the third stage of the rocket. According to the Center, now “Progress” makes a circular rotation of 360 degrees every five seconds.
According to the academician of the Russian Academy of Cosmonautics. Tsiolkovsky, Yuri Karash found around the “Progress” fragments indicate that it is actively destroyed and falls to the ground.
“So he became a conglomeration of 40 and more debris, need to get on it was put very serious purely physical effect – either inside or outside. If inside, it means that it exploded. And if outside, it means that he entered the dense layers of the atmosphere and disintegrates due to the effects of thermal and dynamic loads on it during the air friction, “- said the expert agency” Interfax-AVN “.
The scientist says that exist in this form, “Progress” can be very short period of time. “He’s already falling to Earth. Most likely, he just exploded,” – said Karnash.
The damage and consequences
In the space industry overall damage from loss “Progress” is estimated at about 5 billion rubles to the cost of the carrier rocket “Soyuz-2.1A”, as well as the ship itself.
At the same time, as reported by “Interfax” a source in the space insurance market, ” Progress “has been insured in the” SOGAZ “and” Ingosstrakh “on 2 billion rubles on a parity basis.
“Under the contract of cargo spacecraft” Progress M-27M “fear until docking with the ISS. If the docking does not take place, it will be deemed an insured event will focus on the loss of insurance of space risks”, – he explained the spokesman.
At the same time, he said, “as long as insurers do not have confirmed information that the cargo spaceship will not be able to save.”
As for Georgia, which is a space “truck” was supposed to deliver to the ISS, then, according to the deputy head of the department of psychology and psychophysiology of the Institute of Biomedical Problems, Russian Academy of Sciences Vadim Gushchin, failure to “progress” is not fatal to the crew station. “At the station, and there are enough water and oxygen. There’s such a reserve was laid out, it’s not fatal. The work will not be broken,” – said the scientist.
However, he said, the astronauts very waited private parcels, is similar to the situation with presents in childhood. “Waiting for themselves a gift, while you do not know what it is, but really want to get. And when you do not get all frustrated with your head. Here they are at this time and lost” – said the expert.
Since the “Progress M-27M” went out of control after start-up and failed to deliver the cargo to the ISS, the Russian Space Agency will have to revise the schedule of launches cargo spacecraft to the International Space Station.
The next after the “Progress M-27M” must It was to be launched “Progress M-28M”, which is already in Baikonur, and the launch of which was scheduled for August 6. Now, this launch will have to shift to an earlier date, the minimum time to prepare the ship should take at least a month.
“It seems, as usual, in an emergency or delays in the work of preparing for the launch of the cargo ship will be organized around the clock” – said a source at Baikonur agency “Interfax-Kazakhstan”.
According to the source, at Baikonur in storage mode is also a cargo spacecraft “Progress M-29M”.
In order to ensure the ISS cargo annually launched from Baikonur 4 cargo ship “Progress”. Each “truck” is delivered to the station more than 2.5 tons of cargo. Fuel from the tanks is pumped into the cargo ship propulsion plant and serves to maintain its orbit.
Observer Anastasia Nikolaeva
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