The bombers Su-24 airbase airfield Hmeymim
Russia has strengthened the position of Bashar al-Assad and declared itself a full participant in the political process, and thus may leave Syria, Russian experts say. West says the results of this campaign, more discreet
Russia’s military operation in Syria took five and a half months: The Federation Council approved the introduction of troops on September 30 and on March 14, President Vladimir Putin announced the withdrawal of “major forces” from the territory of the republic.
The objectives and tools
«Our task is to stabilize the legitimate authority and create conditions for the search a political compromise “, – Putin said in October 2015. Another objective, he proclaimed the need to “cleanse Syria of insurgents, terrorists and protect Russia from possible terrorist attacks.”
In order to solve these two problems land base has been deployed in the region. On Hmeymim airbase in western Latakia province located group videoconferencing Russia. More than four months of the campaign group has grown to 70 aircraft. Guarded base and service technician about 4 thousand. People, Reuters wrote. Besides the aviation group based in Latakia based set of powerful air defense. The composition of the air defense group included several systems “Armour-C1 ‘, anti-aircraft missile system” Buk-M2 “, and the new S-400.
From the sea, the air base to cover a group of ships led by the missile cruiser” Varangian”. In addition to his group included rocket ship “Dagestan”, “Grad Sviyazhsk”, “Uglich” and “Great Ustyug” submarine B-237 “Rostov-on-Don”. Exploration regular fleet was carried out by means of a reconnaissance ship “Vasiliy Tatishchev.” It is through these ships 48 cruise missile strikes on Syrian territory was applied.
According to RBC estimates, the operation in Syria cost the Russian budget of $ 2.5 million per day. For comparison, US military spending in the Syrian campaign about $ 11.4 million on a daily basis.
During the conflict it became known about the four dead Russian soldiers. A month after the start of the operation killed 19-year-old contractor Vadim Kostenko: official cause of his death called suicide. November 24 in Syria killed Oleg Peshkov – Pilot bomber Su-24 shot down Turkish fighter. Su-24 navigator Konstantin Murahtina were saved, but at the time of the rescue operation killed a Marine Alexander Pozynich. February 3 Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation announced the deaths in Syria Russian military adviser, got under mortar attack. According to the official version, he did not take part in hostilities, and engaged in training the Syrian military, which receive Russian military hardware. Name of the deceased Defense Ministry did not name.
The results of operations
During the Russian operation, according to the Russian Defense Ministry sources, was released more than 10 000 sq. km area, more than 200 localities are back under government control. But, according to IHS Conflict Monitor, for the entire 2015, the government army lost for about 16% of the territory, most of which are located in the east of the province of Homs, Palmyra.
As of December 2015, the IG controlled 78 thousand sq. m. km, the Syrian government – 30 thousand, 15.8 thousand more -.. were under the control of Syrian Kurds
However, at the time of the signing of the armistice Assad forces are in a better position than they were before the arrival of the Russian military. , deputy director of the Institute of political and military analysis Alexander Khramchikhin. With the support of the Russian aviation and troops of the Lebanese “Hezbollah” the government army was able to cut off the eastern districts of the city of Aleppo, controlled by the opposition, on the border with Turkey. Thus, the connection between the northern territories of the rebels and the city was interrupted. After the armistice was signed on 27 February Assad’s forces have not ceased to attack areas of the city, the Russian FSI also continued airstrikes. But further progress on this front to reach could not.
With the support of Russian aircraft in recent days, the operation was carried out attack on the city of Palmyra in the east of the province of Homs. The ancient city was captured in May 2015. IG militants (banned in Russia). In recent days, the Syrian army was able with the help of “Pinocchio” and “Smerch” rocket systems of volley fire sent Russia to come to the city for 5-7 km.
The opposition also took advantage of the truce to the background on the upcoming talks in Geneva, to strengthen its position, said Hramchihin. Opposition forces launched an offensive in the north of Latakia in early March and were able to capture the strategic hilltop al-Navara. In the south of the province of the rebels also attacked the government troops. Detachments of the terrorist organization “Al-Nusra Front” (banned in Russia), and the “Jund al-Aqsa” captured the two peaks in the vicinity of the village of Al-Ais
«to declare the fight against LIH -. LIH not defeated, although some and damage suffered, “- says Sukhov. On the other hand contraband oil trade is seriously disrupted, the Syrian army has occupied a large area, and “on the ground” launched the process of negotiations, which may prove to be more important consultations in Geneva, said the expert.
The unexpected withdrawal
The decision on the withdrawal of Russia’s main grouping of Syrian President Vladimir Putin did not discuss with anyone of the world leaders, in addition to the President of the Arab republic Bashar al-Assad. Told this to Putin’s press secretary Dmitry Peskov.
The representatives of the Syrian opposition have called Putin’s unexpected decision. “I do not understand Russian statement, this is a surprise, as well as their entry into the war. God protects us, “- he said in an interview with Reuters, Fadi Ahmad, a spokesman for” First Coast Division “(grouping as part of Free Syrian Army)
Putin explained the beginning of the withdrawal of Syria in that the main tasks performed.. This is good news, given that in the context of the Middle East, many feared a ground operation, says the first deputy chairman of the Duma defense committee, Sergei Zhigarev. Chairman of the Federation Council Committee on International Affairs Konstantin Kosachev called the president’s decision to withdraw the main contingent of Russian armed forces from Syria welcome. “Not because the operation was delayed. It dates from the beginning does not prejudge [...] operation could with equal probability and be more fleeting, and last for a considerable time “, – he said in his Facebook
Why the decision was. accepted now and without any public preparations, not obvious, says Qadri Jamil, former Deputy Prime Minister of the Syrian government, “I think that Russia has achieved its military objectives, and at the same time at the beginning of the Geneva talks, it widely opens the door to a political solution, makes this problem. ” Russia has fulfilled the purpose of preventing the Syrian government to fall, partly to reduce the threat of terrorism, in addition, the Syrian operation was initially announced as temporary, believes the politician.
Research Associate of the Centre for Arab and Islamic Studies at the Institute of Oriental Studies, Russian Academy of Sciences Nikolai Sukhov in conversation with RBC did not rule out that the decision was taken on the results of trade with the Americans – not for nothing that the former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger came to Moscow
«the situation in the region has changed in favor of the government -. Russia has strengthened Syria as a state. No matter how oppressive it may be – it is the only guarantor of the survival of the population, – said Sukhov. – In addition, Russia has increased its prestige as a global power in Asia and Africa. ” Finally, the operation has become a test of the combat capability of the army: teaching, testing in combat conditions of many weapons systems – “a great advertisement of our arms on the global market”, – the expert believes
How will act further Russian troops and how soon they will be. derived, is still unknown.
on the question of whether to leave Russia to return to Syria, Peskov said that the Russian troops in Syria acted on the basis of handling the Syrian leadership. However, the question came whether from al-Assad to stop the operation, Peskov said that the decision was made “on the basis of an assessment of the results of the operation videoconferencing».
Questions about the schedule of withdrawal, the number of remaining contingent, as well as about whether there will be in Syria, the S-400, Sand forwarded to the Ministry of Defense. The representative of the Ministry told RBC that “no need to rush,” promising to provide comments on Tuesday.
The peace talks
Consolidation of the regime Assad and the depletion of the armed opposition has opened the way for peace talks, which in 2012 said both Moscow and Washington.
the opposing forces have not signed the armistice itself, but the fact that the government forces and the armed opposition have agreed to the proposed their format, showed how both sides are exhausted, told The Washington Post director of the Center for Middle Eastern studies at the University of Oklahoma, Joshua Landis.
The announcement of the beginning of the withdrawal of most of the Russian military contingent from Syria was made by the Kremlin on the eve of the next round of negotiations on the Syrian settlement in Geneva.
mode Representatives of Bashar Assad and the armed Syrian opposition met for the first month after the previous round of negotiations was thwarted because of accusations of opponents of official Damascus to ceasefire violations.
But on February 22 Russia and the United States agreed to terminate on February 27, the fighting in Syria, except for those that are carried out against the banned organizations in Russia “Islamic State” and “Dzhebhat al-Nusra.” By the truce eventually joined by more than 40 armed groups of the Syrian opposition.
Alternative Geneva talks did not settle format. There is no “plan B” in case of failure does not exist, said March 13 the UN special envoy to Syria Staffan de Mistura. The only alternative – protraction of the conflict. The absence of other options in the event of failure of the truce and mezhsiriyskih talks said and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.
diplomatic breakthrough in Geneva did not expect, but observers retained some optimism due to the fact that the agreed with the mediation of Russia, the United States UN ceasefire somehow adhered to last two weeks. According to the US Secretary of State John Kerry’s estimates, the level of violence has fallen during this time by 80-90%, while the responsibility for the remaining cases of bloodshed he laid on the pro-government forces. Russia and Iran, he said, took responsibility “for the forces which they control or which have an impact,” why Putin “should be worried,” said Kerry.
In a new meeting had hoped vsei parties to the conflict. On the eve of the Russian and US diplomats met to discuss its agenda, both in Geneva and in Amman (Jordan took on the task of selection of participants for the negotiations, there is the State Department placed the center of violence monitoring).
Frozen conflict
As far as withdrawal of the Russian troops will attack the world in Syria – an open question. Peskov did not answer the question of journalists, whether the means adopted Monday a decision the termination of videoconferencing Russian military operations. Russia and can thus make it clear that is not going to put pressure on Assad over the fact that he participated in the negotiations, says RBC professor at the American University in Beirut, Imad Salam. “This is a prelude to a potential violation of the Syrian regime of the Geneva agreements on a cease-fire – he admits. – At the Assad regime is now an overdose of Iranian-Russian aid, his offensive fuse. ” Arguing its position, Salam recalls, in particular, the reluctance of the delegation from Damascus to discuss the transfer of power from Assad to hand
Approved in December 2015, the UN Security Council resolution on Syria suggests the holding of elections in the country for a year and a half -. Vote must elapse after the adoption of the new Constitution and under the supervision of the UN.
The Syrian foreign Minister Walid Muallem said that the formulation of the question of the resignation of President Assad for the government delegation will be “red line” beyond which there will be further talks impossible. “Despite the fact that full political decision that would change of power in Syria – is a desirable goal, it is now virtually unattainable. If the opposition will insist on it, it’s guaranteed to frustrate negotiations and is likely to lead to a resumption of fighting. Risk of negotiations in Geneva that the opposition and those who support it, can make the “best” (care Assad) the enemy of “good” (the extension of the truce), but in the end everything will end “the worst” – the resumption of violence without any real plans for their arrest, “- said The Financial Times former adviser to Barack Obama on the Middle East, a member of the International Affairs Council, Philip Gordon
according to the Kremlin, in a telephone conversation with Putin himself, Assad also expressed his hope. that the negotiations will lead to “concrete results.” But so far, judging by the words located in Geneva, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, consultations are “difficult.” UN Special Envoy for Syria Staffan de Mistura, on Monday also asked journalists to refrain from premature optimism.
Restrained reaction
Western leaders is reserved appreciated Moscow’s decision. Washington Moscow’s decision on the withdrawal of troops has not officially commented. As a spokesman for the White House Josh Ernest, the Obama administration will examine the Kremlin’s intentions in this regard. He only said that the US position has not changed, and Washington still believe that Russia carried out military intervention in Syria to support the regime of Bashar al-Assad. The European Union also produces long position. “We need more information”, – told RBC Catherine Ray, spokesperson of the EU High Representative for Foreign Policy Federica Mogherini
But the German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier expressed hope that the withdrawal of Russian troops from the territory of Syria will. pressure on the President of the Arab republic Bashar al-Assad on peace talks.
“If the statement on the withdrawal of Russian troops realized, this will increase pressure on the regime of [Syrian President Bashar] Assad, for the final and serious negotiations in Geneva on the political transition” – Steinmeier said
. “Putin said that Russia’s goals in Syria reached. It looks that striking LIH never been the target of Russia. Hmm, “- commented on Twitter Program Director for Combating Terrorism of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, Matthew Levitt. A similar reaction is caused Putin’s decision and a former US ambassador to Russia Michael McFaul. “I was in Asia a week. And what Russia has won LIH, while I was gone? “- He said in Twitter
The main goal of Putin, which he pursued before the start of the military operation in Syria, has been branding -. To force the West to speak with him on equal believes Hramchihin. “This goal is accomplished. We could observe that the resolution of the Syrian problem involved only two countries – Russia and the United States “, -. Sums up the expert
With the participation of Elizabeth Antonova, Catherine Marhuliya, Vyacheslav Kozlov, Farida Rustamova, Ilya Christmas
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