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March 15, all participants of the Syrian peace process in Geneva, frantically trying to fine-tune the diplomatic strategy to new realities – in terms of withdrawal of Russian troops from Syria. Despite the fact that the timing of the withdrawal still unclear, and in Syria will remain two working domestic military bases, the very statement of the Kremlin mixed card, without exception players participating in the Geneva diplomatic process
The Government of Syria:. Dizziness of success
The withdrawal of Russian troops from Syria, unquestionably weakens the position of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. However, this does not change the relationship between Damascus and Moscow essentially
The official Syrian authorities led by President Bashar al-Assad -. A key ally of Moscow in the Geneva talks. Initially, the Kremlin has insisted that Assad should stay in power, regardless of the process of national reconciliation. At the end of 2015 Russia just changed its position, stating that maintain specific Assad is optional, but it is important to preserve his regime (probably headed by another native of the Alawite clan Assad) as the basis for the new government.
This was a concession to the US, which initially insisted on leaving Assad, but in December, agreed to support the UN Security Council resolution, which is not linked the resignation of the Syrian president with the beginning of peaceful negotiations.
it would seem, from this alliance between Moscow and Damascus should It was to become stronger. However, since the beginning of 2016 the positions of Russia and Syria began to diverge. Apparently, Assad felt the courage from the success of his troops, who, with the support of the Russian Federation could precipitate videoconferencing important from a strategic point of view of Aleppo, and came close to the border with Turkey. This considerably strengthened the position of the Damascus delegation in Geneva and has caused a fair concern of the delegation of a pro-Western Syrian opposition. The cease-fire declared on 27 February to fix this balance of power.
Against this background, Bashar al-Assad in early March said he would fight to the bitter end, and it caused irritation in Moscow . A diplomatic source said “Gazeta.ru”, that was not to support the Damascus military zeal in Russian plans. Moscow moved willingness to negotiate constructively.
According to these data, one of the reasons for the sudden withdrawal of Russian troops from Syria could be precisely this misunderstanding.
According to Alexei Malashenko, an expert Carnegie Moscow center, a decrease in the domestic contingent Assad will make less and apparently docile. “He will have to go to the new agreement, which will allow him to stay in power,” – said the expert, “Gazeta.ru»
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This does not mean that al-Assad will turn away from Moscow, to find allies in the West – rather the opposite. Russia remains an influential player in the Geneva process. In addition, it is only interested in the continuation of the Assad government. US, Saudi Arabia and Turkey are not interested in this at all
The Syrian opposition:. Fight Continues
In Geneva there are two delegations representing the interests of the Syrian opposition. One conventionally pro-Western, and the second – relatively pro-Russian. While both delegations approved the withdrawal of Russian troops and demanded the withdrawal of all foreign aircraft from Syrian territory.
These changes have already given the first fruits. Opposition Delegation March 15 agreed to start negotiations with the representatives of the official Damascus. However, it is already known, at least one is not surmountable obstacle. Part of the opposition said that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad must step down before the start of the national reconciliation process.
Moscow expects that this problem should solve its Western partners, led by the United States.
The Kurds: in anticipation of federalization
For a Kurdish militant groups that maintain neutral relations with Damascus, and enjoy the support of the Russian Federation and the United States, withdrawal of Russian troops is not critical from a military point view. Russia did not have a Kurdish People’s Self-Defense Forces of substantial combat support and supplying them with weapons. United States, in turn, is also supported by the Kurds only diplomatic measures so as not to cause irritation in Turkey that deals artillery strikes on Kurdish positions in Syria.
Conclusion Russian troops for the Kurds not change anything except one point. They are a step closer to the cherished dream -. The achievement of autonomy from Damascus
On the eve of a new round of talks in Geneva, which was launched on Monday, shirilis rumors about the federalization of Syria. Despite the fact that the Russian diplomats, including the head of the Russian Foreign Ministry Sergei Lavrov, denied that Moscow is taking the initiative on the division of Syria actually autonomous regions, they do not deny that this debate is
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last week, the chief mediator in the Geneva process, UN special envoy to Syria Staffan de Mistura said that the idea of federalization “has not been removed from the agenda”. The output of domestic forces, as already stated, many Western diplomats, significantly accelerate the process of negotiations in Geneva, and it means that the momentum will receive, including the discussion of the federalization of Syria.
This is what waiting for Syrian Kurds, who already there is a successful example of the conquest of autonomy – in Iraq. Iraqi Kurdistan and legally and practically autonomous from the central leadership of the country in Baghdad. No wonder the positions of the Iraqi Kurds on the eve struck Turkish artillery, accused the Iraqi Kurds in the organization of the recent terrorist attack in Ankara.
«What goes on the Geneva process, the more confidence that the federalization of Syria may be the most convenient way to solve the conflict, – told “Gazeta.ru” Zeev Khanin, professor of the Israeli Bar-Ilan University. – The withdrawal of Russian troops from Syria in this process is no longer in a position to influence, he had already gone too far and can not disappear from the agenda. ” According to the expert, the autonomy of Syrian Kurds actually approve of the US and Israel.
The Syrian social networks already rumors that the Syrian Kurds may declare autonomy from Damascus in the coming days.
Turkey : for their country and against the Kurds
Turkey Russian maneuver is likely to be pleased. Due to the extremely unfavorable climate in relations between Ankara and Moscow, the Turkish leadership has been one of the loudest critics of Russian military action in Syria.
Now, Turkey will feel more freedom in their hostilities on the border with Syria. Turkish Armed Forces since February inflict strikes on the positions of the Syrian Kurds, and did not stop even a cease-fire declared in Syria on 27 February. Ankara considers all terrorist Kurdish militant groups, but the truce does not extend to terrorists
The main thing is that Turkey wants to achieve in Syria -. Is to stop the Kurds towards autonomy from Damascus. If you do not succeed, the rise of separatist sentiment spread to Kurdish areas of Turkey that may threaten its territorial integrity.
Ankara has stepped up military presence in a number of strategically important Kurdish towns on the border with Syria.
<-! place 8103323, / politics / 2016/03 / 01_a_8103323.shtml, nm2015 / v2 / article / incut, incut4_link ->However, from the very sharp movements in Syria, Turkey will keep almost all its allies and partners from the United States to Saudi Arabia. None of them is not interested in disrupting the ceasefire. In addition, in the case of federalization of Syria, Ankara will be able to join the struggle for influence over parts of the country
Saudi Arabia. The first after Russia
Few argue with the fact that after the Russian military operation in the territory of the Russian Federation banned terrorist “Islamic state” in Syria has declined by at least 40%. Russian air strikes were the main deterrent to terrorist activity in this country. After the withdrawal of the Armed Forces here will void fill that is able to only a coalition of Arab countries, obviously, led by Saudi Arabia, told “Gazeta.ru” Theodore Karasik, an expert Gulf State Analytics Center in Washington.
The military coalition of Sunni powers, perhaps under the auspices of the League of Arab States has a chance to demonstrate its ability to settle regional conflicts and enhance its prestige. In addition, it will strengthen the position of the Syrian delegation in Geneva, which has the support of Riyadh.
In addition, the Sunni monarchy will be looking forward to leaving Assad and the coming national unity government. The fact that Assad and his clan of the Alawites have been successfully cooperating with the Shiite Iran, the main rival Saudi Arabia in the region.
As a result, the Geneva process is expected to many Sunni political parties will be part of the Government of Syria. This will weaken the power of the Alawites, and Tehran, in turn, lose a powerful lever of influence on Syria
Iran: a good mine
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Iran, if not guess about leaving the Armed Forces from Syria, he was ready for it. Since February of this year, an anonymous US sources began to report the press about a sharp reduction in the number of Iranian troops involved in the Syrian conflict on the side of the union of Damascus to Tehran. In particular, they talked about the commandos from the elite Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC). After this information US Secretary of State John Kerry has officially confirmed.
Vladimir Yevseyev, head of Eurasian integration and development of the SCO CIS Institute, said “Gazeta.ru”, that in the beginning of March, the number of Iranian troops in Syria declined from 4 up to 2 thousand people.
Vladimir Akhmedov, senior researcher at the Institute of Middle Eastern Studies, in turn, recalled that a few days ago in Iran held a demonstration against the military presence of the Islamic republic in Syria.
«Teheran can not now actively promoting its interests in Syria. For it is more important to maintain positive relations with the West after the “nuclear deal” and the recent tests of ballistic missiles, which caused concern in the United States, “- said Zeev Hanin
US: only positive .
Putin ordered the Russian defense Minister Sergei Shoigu start returning from Syria sun evening of 14 March, when the US was morning and the local media started to make a picture of the day. Already on this basis we can judge that the Russian president’s decision was addressed to Washington.
The reaction of the White House not long in coming. Several hours later, US President Barack Obama and Putin had a telephone conversation in which first welcomed the Kremlin’s decision
In general, the withdrawal of Russian troops from Syria -. It’s just that, which sought to American diplomacy. Now Washington and its allies have no reason to blame the Russian bombardment in creating a negative background in the negotiations in Geneva
On the one hand, it brings the United States towards a common goal -. Overcome the Syrian conflict and the creation of a new state in the Syria, it is likely without Bashar al-Assad. According to “Gazeta.ru” Veniamin Popov, former Russian Ambassador to the Arab Republic and Director of the Center for Partnership of Civilizations MGIMO, Moscow and Washington have demonstrated the ability to find a compromise and achieve a real cease-fire which has been waiting for local residents after 5 years of armed conflict.
On the other hand, is now Washington is deprived of the opportunity to accuse Moscow if the ceasefire is still torn
Russian:. other people’s problems
«Now two opposing points of view on the withdrawal of Russian troops from Syria. Either Moscow has achieved its objectives and leaves a winner, or it suffers a defeat on all fronts Syrian, and runs in a hurry, – says the expert of the Moscow Carnegie Center Alexei Malashenko. – Both options do not seem too likely »
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The only thing that can be say for sure is that Russia’s decision to become a powerful impetus to the Geneva process, he said. This is – undeniable merit in Moscow
The undisputed advantage of the withdrawal -. Saving. According to several Western and Russian studies, the approximate cost of the day Syrian operations Russia is around $ 2.5 million. Earlier, the Ministry of Defense stated that these costs are acceptable and do not go beyond the originally planned estimates. Nevertheless, the Kremlin, no doubt, find how to use this money for domestic needs during the economic crisis
One of the obvious disadvantages for Russia -. It is probable intensification of terrorist groups in Syria, including “Islamic state.” Combating terrorism was one of the main arguments, which Moscow explained its decision to start the Syrian operation.
The rest of the consequential factors Kremlin will try to use to their advantage. Now in Syria escalate competition between Saudi Arabia and Turkey, and the United States will require greater effort in the fight against terrorism
According to Zeev Hanin, the Kremlin is trying to create a situation in which he can say other partners:. “We decided to Syrian problem at the moment is now – it’s your turn. ” Will other countries to create the appearance of new solutions Syrian problems -. This is obviously not a problem in Moscow
However, in Geneva, diplomats remain domestic. Their effort now depends much more than during the Russian military operation, which has long been the main argument of the Kremlin diplomacy.
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