June 14, the Committee of Civil Initiatives (OIG), chairman of the board created by the Center for Strategic Research and a former Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin, has published “index of socio-economic and political tensions.” The report was written by staff of the HSE and is dedicated to how today’s regional government in Russia is able to solve the crisis processes in society – if they begin to appear. The study covers the events that took place six months:. At the end of 2015 and beginning of 2016
The report examined the regions according to three parameters: the socio-economic risks, political tensions and protest activity. As told to “Gazeta.ru” one of the authors of the study, Alexander Kanev, OIG expert and associate professor of the department of political science of HSE, there are many regions with a high level of tension in one of the three options, but it does not mean that there will soon begin serious . destabilizing processes
«The fact that a truly dangerous situation may occur only in a combination of tension on all three parameters – the expert believes. – Simply put, not enough to have a crisis in the economy, we also need a subject among the elites, who can take advantage of this situation and raise protest »
According to Kanev, this situation can. . develop only in a limited number of subjects of the Russian Federation
according to the OIG’s expert match on all three parameters distress observed only in seven regions: Moscow, Krasnodar region, Udmurtia, Penza, Ulyanovsk and Chelyabinsk and Irkutsk regions.
Battle regions
Krasnodar region “caught up” the negative effect of the winter Olympics in Sochi, which took place in 2014 and was supposed to be a powerful economic “driver” of the region. According to the professor of the Faculty of Social Sciences School of Economics Nikolai Petrov, who also participated in the OIG study, “investment in the Sochi project gave a good base effect”, but they have fallen on the background of the Crimean problems and slowing domestic economy.
In addition on the development of the region do not affect positively the conflicts between old and new elites. In September 2014, he was dismissed Alexander Tkachev, the head region 14, and was replaced by Veniamin Kondratyev. Now the ex-head of the region is agriculture minister. “The high position of the former governor does not allow to carry out a rapid reformatting elite, as it was, for example, in the Komi”, – said Petrov
<-.! Place 7867823, / politics / 2015/11 / 02_a_7867823.shtml, nm2015 / v2 / article / incut, incut2_link ->
The report also record an increase in protest activity related to the labor and housing rights in Krasnodar Krai
in Udmurtia in 2014 also changed gubernator- “. survivor “Alexander Volkov. The study’s authors argue that the new regional administration headed by Alexander Soloviev suffers from tensions between different interest groups. In the region there a strong and organized protest movement, but also has the tendency to deterioration of the economic situation.
In the Chelyabinsk region there are obvious problems between the government and the security forces. As an example, the report provides a background of the former vice-governor of the region Nikolai Sandakova. Now he is accused of embezzling 1.5 million rubles. the manager of Ozersk city district Yevgenia Tarasova in exchange for a promise to help in the appointment of the head of Magnitogorsk. In addition, Sandakov, according to the investigation, was illegal access to e-mail one of the Chelyabinsk political scientists and personnel governor’s administration, and received a bribe from the director of the local PSA “Python».
Penza region, according to the authors of the study OIG, are now experiencing “post-authoritarian syndrome”. This is the legacy of the governor Vasily Bochkarev, who left his post in 2015. Who manages the region Ivan Belozertsev
Sharp change of a seemingly stable regional authorities -. The classic formula of social tensions rise, experts believe the OIG. “The longer the stability, which, in other words, may be called stagnation, the more serious the problem will be when it will end,” – says Petrov.
Unable to cope with the fragmentation of the elites and the Governor of the Irkutsk region Sergey Levchenko. This is the only governor of the Communist Party, who was able to win the election of the current head of the region – United Russia. According to experts, Levchenko is still perceived as a troublemaker at the federal level. In addition, in the Irkutsk region traditionally compete among themselves representatives of the construction sector and several financial and industrial groups.
Ulyanovsk region was also in the group matches of all risk parameters. Governor Sergey Morozov directs the subject of the Russian Federation since 2005. The report notes the negative dynamics of living standards in the region, together with a high level of protest activity can become an occasion to destabilize the process.
Moscow longer than all other regions of Russia is on top of the tension scale when compared to previous reports OIG. The capital, where, according to the respondents’ Gazetoy.Ru “experts, the most complex structure of the elite, economy and society, appeared in the midst of destabilizing processes at least since the end of 2014.
The authors of this study note in Moscow worsening business conflicts and civil society, as well as discrediting the Moscow city Duma and the powerless position of local authorities.
According to Yevgeny Minchenko, director of the International Institute of political expertise, a list of the most intense regions of Russia according to the OIG can not be the ultimate truth. “There are different techniques, tension in the region and can be evaluated by other indicators, – said the source” Gazety.Ru “. – In my opinion, a special destabilize regions are not observed. ” In his opinion, one of the least stable regions can be attributed, for example, the Amur, Chelyabinsk and Omsk regions and Mari El.
President of “Petersburg Politics” Fund, Mikhail Vinogradov said that the Russian regions are too divergent processes to be able to work out some kind of a trend based on them. In his opinion, the least stable regions of Russia -. It Komi, Chelyabinsk Oblast and Primorsky Krai
Quality falls
<-! Place 8230985, / politics / 2016/05 / 12_a_8230985.shtml, nm2015 / v2 / article / incut, incut3_link ->
Experts OIG, however, do not consider the alarming processes in the regions of the main cause for concern. A more compelling reason for concern lies in the fact that “the quality of regional government is reduced systematically and steadily,” said Kanev. This means that local authorities will not be able to stop the destabilizing processes, if they do come into action.
«If the level of conflict shows the presence of conflict, the level of institutional development and management adaptability indicates the presence of more mechanisms to resolve them” – reads the text of the OIG report
Optimal system of regional authorities, according to the authors of the study, -. “this combination of institutional adaptability and building in government balance sheets, taking into account the interests of various elite groups ., with HR administrative stability and resistance »
The reason for that – the municipal counterreform 2014-2015, as a result of which were canceled (legally or factually) the direct election of mayors and other management in a number of regions posts. Thus the political system once again began to drive away from canned and participate in the potential power of the representatives of the “new elite»
Nikolai Petrov believes that as long as the authorities do not have to worry. Just because it has no competitors. “Our political system is archaic. It is no place for counter-elite, which can serve as a hotbed of tension. In most cases, the elite is consolidated on the basis of rigid authoritarian leadership, “- said the expert THD
« Those players who could challenge the system simply does not have.. However, when the authoritarian leader resigns, it turns out that there is no aligned and working system of institutions “, -. Added Petrov
Another author of the report, Associate Professor, Faculty of Social Sciences School of Economics Alexei Titkov suggests that in all these areas – in addition to the Krasnodar Territory and the Penza region – can cause problems for the ruling party in the run-up to the Duma elections
«in the conditions of domination of” United Russia “, it is likely all will receive the first place, but the results can be. be below average. Somewhere there is a risk of falling for the symbolic barrier of 50% “, – the expert believes
As for the Krasnodar Region and Penza region, there’s just worth waiting for reducing the usual results, he says.. Until now, in these areas there are real “political machine”, bringing sky-high results, but now they will be more modest, Titkov says.
No comments:
Post a Comment