publication time: 31 Jan 2017 21:54 | last updated: January 31, 2017, 22:14
the Plans of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation on purchase of foreign currency in February-March this year, which is necessary to the Russian regulator to absorb the additional budget revenues from oil exceeded forecast levels, will lead to a mild weakening of the ruble with its further stabilization. Such forecast was made by the former Prime Minister and now head of the Center for strategic research (CSR) Alexei Kudrin.
“I agree that it would be a mild depreciation of the ruble, and then stabilization”, – he said, answering the question about the impact of foreign exchange interventions the Ministry of Finance (quoted by TASS). According to Kudrin, most experts understand that in the case of purchases by the Ministry of Finance of the foreign currency on the domestic market, the ruble will decline “to 63-64 per dollar”.
“But it is only one factor. Of course, at this time will operate and other factors, so the trend is for a mild decline. But, most likely, the course will subsequently remain stable,” Kudrin predicted.
25 January, the Ministry of Finance announced the commencement of operations on purchase and sale of foreign currency on the domestic market with the involvement of the Bank of Russia since February.
Operations will be conducted “in order to enhance the stability and predictability of domestic economic conditions and reduce the impact of volatile market energy prices on the Russian economy and public finances”, said the Agency (quoted by Interfax).
the Volume of transactions will depend on the amount of oil and gas revenues of the Federal budget. The purchase of foreign currency in the amount of additional oil and gas revenues will be until the actual price of Urals crude exceeds $ 40 per barrel. When the price drop below $ 40 a barrel will be carried out operations on sale of currency in the amount of lost oil and gas revenues.
In this case, the accumulated volume of operations on sale of foreign currency may not exceed accumulated since the beginning of operations in the volume of purchases of foreign currency. Sale calculated daily volume of foreign currency will be conducted evenly throughout the trading day.
Bloomberg earlier wrote that the Bank of Russia will start to buy dollars on the market already in February-March, to absorb the additional budget revenues from oil exceeded forecast levels. The monthly volume of interventions at current oil prices probably will be about $ 1 billion.
the Ruble, collapsed in 2014-2015, strengthened against the dollar by about 20% last year, becoming one of the growth leaders among the currencies of developing countries, which adversely affects the competitiveness of Russian exporters. At the same time, the Central Bank regularly confirms the commitment to the policy of floating exchange rate. To smooth out excessive fluctuations of the Russian currency will help the budget rule combined with keeping inflation at around 4%.
the Additional revenue will be in 2017 directed to cover the budget deficit, which will reduce the need for spending of sovereign funds, which, according to forecasts, had to be significantly reduced by year-end, while maintaining low oil prices.
First Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov earlier in January said that the price of oil and the decision on quitting spending in 2017 additional oil and gas revenues allow the Central Bank to purchase foreign currency in the market.
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