Causes
The next two months will be to convince the administration of President Kemerovo Region Governor Aman Tuleyev to resign, told RBC three source close to the Kremlin . They explain the need to change the head of the region’s age (Tuleyev 70), started having health problems and the need for a new economic model of the area.
Tuleyev governing the region since 1997, in April, he has a fourth term expires. In the current economic climate is not viable model “Kemerovo socialism”, which implies increased social obligations, said one of the interlocutors RBC. He argues that the political leadership of the country understands that the authorities need rejuvenation.
Another interviewee describes the main cause of age. According to him, the Kremlin wants to change the power in the region now, while economic difficulties have not reached the peak power rating and kept at a high level. Change the governor a few years later, when he understands the need Tuleyev to retire, will be much more difficult, he suggests.
The press service of the region declined to comment. And Head of Media Relations Kemerovo region administration Anton Gorelkin RBC question of intent to participate in elections Tuleyev said that “the administration of the region is waiting for official announcements».
The governor in late January evasively answered questions from RBC plans for the future. “If there is someone who works better than I, who experienced what I bulge? Region should not depend on one person. But we must still understand that the Kemerovo region – a major region. A draw your own conclusions, “- he said.
Terms care
Tuleyev offer the most honorable conditions of resignation, according to a source close to the Kremlin administration. The governor of the Kemerovo region of very great merits and the region and the country as a whole, he has a good relationship with the president, explains the source. Therefore, it can take an active part in the selection of a successor.
Already discussed Tuleyev team members who are able to take power: it is the head of Novokuznetsk Sergei Kuznetsov and First Deputy Governor Maxim Makin. Tuleyev himself could be the first “presidential” Senator assumes the source close to the Kremlin administration. Until now, the head of state is not yet implemented in the past year received the right to appoint members of the Federation Council.
Tuleyev did not want to retire, for him, this work – the whole of life, said the source RBC. Source close to the leadership of the local “United Russia”, argues that already drafted the necessary documents for the nomination of the governor.
Professor, Department of Political Science KemSU Alexander Konovalov calls the obvious fact that Thule was going for another term. February 10th Governor gave a two-hour keynote address to the heads of cities, in which he told how, in a crisis building policy in the region. According to political analyst Yevgeny Minchenko, Tuleyev tried to agree to participate in the next elections.
In the presidential administration in response decided to send a signal to the governor and at the same time to test his reaction, according to the source close to the Kremlin. This week came the next rating of the pro-Kremlin Civil Society Fund, in which position Tuleyev were suddenly reduced. In the explanatory memorandum decision was due to “the growing uncertainty in the region”: According to IMF experts are not clear prospects of upstream and downstream enterprises in the economic crisis.
Tuleyev understands that most likely he will have to leave, so it will to the last traded, including what to independently determine the successor concludes a source close to the Kremlin.
«Resources for maintaining social stability in the region close to exhaustion. Problems occur the first year. But the figure Tuleyev important both politically and symbolically – it consolidates elite, its popularity provides stability in a potentially dangerous region “, – said political analyst Rostislav Turovsky. He is confident that with the departure of the governor of conflict in the Kuzbass rise sharply, whoever comes in his place. However, the expert said, two months before the resignation of the governor bargaining goes on, and the situation may change dramatically.
Mining socialist
Aman Tuleyev – one of the last governors of old-timers, as well as one of the few who participated in federal politics before the 2000s. It Tuleyev in 1993 during a meeting of participants of the “Siberian Agreement” (Association of Siberian cities) put forward the idea of combining the Siberian republic. He collaborated with the Communist Party until 1999, participated in several presidential elections. At home in the area during the elections for the first term in 1997, received 94.5% of the vote in 2001 – 93,54%.
In the 1990s, in the Kuzbass during the restructuring of the economy via Tuleyev manual control managed to cope with the miners’ strike and negotiate with the federal center, resulting in the region there is an authoritarian style of government. A source in the CEC “United Russia” says that the area for their “closed” and all decisions come in order notice from the region. But the result of the party due to Tuleyev high: in the Duma elections in 2011, he was two times higher than in neighboring Novosibirsk region: 64,8% and 33,2%.
Kuzbass has a unique model of social policy on the number of benefits: free travel for pensioners, trips to resorts and additional payments Kuzbass, a huge number of benefits for young people, including a mortgage loan at zero percent.
«Have Tuleyev desire to emphasize the advantages of the Soviet way of life, We have a huge system of awards – 32 awards “- says Konovalov. Tuleyev this year has already stated that none of the measures of social support have been reduced, in addition, there will be additional.
The economy of Kuzbass
Today, in the Kemerovo region produced more than half of the stone, and about 80% of coking coal in Russia. The largest coal enterprises in the region controlled by UMMC, SUEK, Evraz, steel – Evraz and Rusal (see. Table). Sufficiently developed mechanical engineering and chemical industry.
But the region’s economy, heavily dependent on two sectors is far from prosperity. Dependence leads to the volatility of the tax base, explains the deputy director of public finance group Standard & amp; Poor ‘s Karen Vartapetov – budget of the region has been hit by falling prices for coal and metals. Revenues from income tax – the main source of the budget – fell for two consecutive years, he says: in 2012 they decreased by 30% in 2013 – still at 38%, and only in 2014 were restored. “The fall of revenues from income taxes resulted in a budget deficit region (in 2012-2014 it was about 15% of revenues by region on average – 5%) and the subsequent accumulation of debt,” – adds Vartapetov. By the end of 2014 the debt area exceeded 50% of its own revenue (the average in Russia – 30%).
With the participation of Maxim Glikina, Pauline Rusyaeva
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