Dollar to 82.50 rubles – today’s reality – SIA (press release)

January 26, 2016

 On Monday, at the end of the trading session on the Moscow stock exchange rate of the US dollar calculations “tomorrow” has increased by 201.60 cop. (+ 2.58%) to 80.04 rubles., The euro – to 269.50 kopecks. (3.2%) to 86.93 rubles.

 The Central Bank of Russia from January 26, raised the official rate of the US dollar to 277.49 kopecks., To 77.7965 rubles. The official rate of the euro was fixed at 84.1603 rubles., Lower than the previous day to 306.63 cop.

 On Monday, the Russian ruble began trading on the Moscow stock exchange with a sharp strengthening of the dollar and the euro due to increasing oil quotations. At the time of opening of the trading session Brent traded above $ 32 a barrel. In the first minutes of trading, the dollar fell to 76.39 rubles., The euro – up to 82.22 rubles.

 The effect of the oil market was short-lived, as by 12:00 MSK Brent fell by 6.3%, to $ 30,69.

  Falling prices for black gold could cause the application of Saudi Arabia that the country can withstand the low oil prices for a long time, and does not intend to reduce investments in oil production. On the other hand, in the negative European stock indices went behind them – the US.

 Following the auction, a barrel of Brent fell to $ 29.98, the dollar rose to 80.04 rubles., Euro – up to 86.93 rubles.

 As market 9:00 MSK Brent is $ 29.43. Price is again below $ 30. Asian stocks traded in the “red zone”. Therefore, the dollar / ruble will open at approximately 80.85, followed by a move to 81.30. If buyers decide Friday to close the price gap, we look forward to the strengthening of the dollar against the Russian currency to 82.50. At the ruble strengthening is not going well. Support from the tax period by the day wanes.

 Given the current market price of oil, it is expected that the euro / ruble opened near 87.57. From a price to move above the 88.00 / 10 rubles. If European stock index immediately lost more than 2%, the euro strengthened against the dollar and the ruble. In the breakdown of the level of 88.10 rubles. the growth rate of the European currency strengthened to 89.05 rubles.

 High volatility in the domestic market will continue until the end of the week. The main event of the week is the meeting of the FOMC (Wednesday). No one expects a rate hike. Important statement following the meeting. Probably, the regulator in a statement uses a formulation suitable for all.

 On Friday, a meeting of the Central Bank. It is possible that the key rate will be raised, because of the weakening of the ruble increased the risk of inflation, which do not allow to reduce the rate.

 Vladislav Antonov, an analyst at Alpari