«Oil of Russia», 24.01.16, Moscow, 08:30 Given that the oil price is now less than $ 30 a barrel, exchange rate in the month decreased by 10% and the Russian government do not have a coordinated plan out of the deepening economic crisis, President Vladimir Putin, currently faces a choice similar to that which had to do the last Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev if he should loosen state control the economy, to abandon the aggressive foreign policy, and start a rapprochement with the West – or to choose the path of repression inside the country?
The first option, which Gorbachev ultimately chose after unsuccessful attempts to suppress the uprising in the Soviet republics sought achieve independence, extremely unpleasant Putin, who deliberately missed many opportunities to mitigate their regime. This is well understood by advocates of the second variant of the repressive and the most impatient of them have become openly put forward their arguments.
The main supporters of the second of these options became Ramzan Kadyrov, the head of the first breakaway republic of Chechnya, who defected to Moscow at the beginning of Putin’s presidency and with the financial support of the Kremlin turned the republic into a tightly controlled personal fiefdom. Kadyrov has recently made a series of statements in which he called the “non-systemic opposition” – Putin’s opponents, it is not part of an obedient parliament and his “vertical of power” – “enemies of the people”, a term familiar to all Russians from the time of Stalin’s repression.
Kadyrov does not tolerate any criticism of his rule in Chechnya. Among other things, it forces opponents to record a humiliating apology videos and share them online. He began his campaign against opponents of Putin’s January 12, accusing them of trying to “cash in on the difficult economic situation.” “These people must be treated as enemies of the people, as traitors,” – he said. He did not name names, but his statements have caused a wave of indignation in social networks. In one of the videos, which quickly spread on the Internet, the deputy Siberian city of Krasnoyarsk called Kadyrov “a shame of Russia”. He quickly forced to apologize, and this fact proved that Kadyrov can reach every corner of Russia with the help of powerful and sometimes extremely dangerous Chechen diaspora.
Usually docile Ombudsman Putin on human rights Ella Pamfilova , accused Kadyrov that he had a home and a disservice to Putin, hinted on extrajudicial repression against the opposition. She made it clear that in his words no apology is not going to bring it.
But Kadyrov was not taken aback. In his post, he wrote in Instagram: “I did not threaten! If they are perceived as a threat to my mind, therefore, understand that we are for Russia, for our fatherland perish with you and are ready to do everything to protect our homeland. ” He even wrote an article in the pro-Kremlin newspaper “Izvestia”, in which he harshly criticized the anti-Putin and remaining independent publications, which, according to him, publish anti-Russian message hateful opposition “jackals.” He wrote:
Those who call for dialogue with the jackals, to dream of the destruction of our country, can not wash away the stench of skunk cowardly. As a patriot, an infantryman Russian President Vladimir Putin, to flirt in front of murderers and traitors of my country, I will never be.
He added that the opposition leaders he is ready to find a place in local psychiatric hospitals: “Where will be spelled out a single injection, we can do two ».
Almost simultaneously Magomed Daudov, the speaker of the Chechen parliament and ally of Kadyrov, has published his post, in which he mentioned several” American dogs stripes “, meaning referring to the anti-Putin politician Ilya Yashin, a human rights activist Lev Ponomarev and editor of “Echo of Moscow” Alexei Venediktov.
The most accurate response to the Kremlin’s offensive is its Chechen allies can be described by naming her sleepy. “As for his (Kadyrov’s) declaration of non-systemic opposition in general, let’s turn our attention to what we are talking about non-system opposition – those who are outside the legitimate political field of the country. They are those who in their activities do not stay within the law and are ready to break it, including to the detriment of the country, “- said Putin’s spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, on Wednesday, January 20. According to Peskov, Putin would be happy to work with the legitimate representatives of the opposition. In other words, the rhetoric Kadyrov, there is nothing wrong.
Motivation of the Chechen leader, making statements about the “jackals” mixed. Chechnya has received more federal aid than any other region of Russia: from 2001 to 2015 it has been allocated 464 billion rubles. This $ 5.6 billion at current exchange rates, but in reality it has been allocated approximately twice as much as the ruble was much stronger at the moment when Chechnya received these funds. It’s a lot of money for a tiny mountain republic with a population of just 1.4 million people. Today, an avalanche of money to Chechnya slowing. The Russian government has decided to reduce budget expenditures by 10%, but this decision was made, when the oil price is still kept at the level of 40 dollars per barrel. Who will require a much more significant reductions. Given the current price of oil, Russia will have to allow the ruble to fall by another 60% in order to balance its budget. Even in the official news agency TASS employees detained wages.
Kadyrov, Putin paid for that one to keep order in their volatile country, and although it is still a priority, the former military commander must have felt not too confident, and considers it necessary to prove their loyalty to Putin. One way to do this – to offer Putin to become a fighter. One of Kadyrov’s men have been charged in the murder of opposition leader Boris Nemtsov, which happened last year.
This puts Putin in quite a difficult situation. He can not publicly blame Kadyrov, because he will likely have to cut funding for the Chechen Republic, and he is now entirely unnecessary instability in the Caucasus. At the same time, Putin is what prevents excessive zeal Kadyrov: judging by his recent public appearances and conciliatory statements Peskov (Thursday, January 21, he said, what happened with the ruble can not be called a collapse), the Russian leader is still hoping some -That way to handle the situation, without losing political support. But Kadyrov threatens Putin’s watchful waiting.
It is possible that Putin has no desire to start a mass campaign of intimidation to end the protests of working Russians – in December, the number of protesters reached 53, a record in the past eight years, threatening to escalate into something larger and more dangerous to his regime. However, he can not sit endlessly: given the situation on the energy markets, now it can not even promise the Russians light at the end of the tunnel. The repression, which acts in favor of Kadyrov might seem Putin increasingly tempting option now that the tales of economic prosperity that his regime for a long time told me the Russians are beginning to fall apart.
Bershidsky Leonid (Leonid Bershidsky)
Bloomberg, the US Read more on http://www.oilru.com/news/497652/
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