The murder of one of the most prominent opposition leaders – Boris Nemtsov became the main event of last week, overshadowing almost everything that happened in the country in recent days. Over at least three days, the topic title remained in the newscasts leading TV channels, despite the fact that long ago the news from Russia they are assigned is not the first place.
The reason for the increased attention to what has happened is clear. Boris Nemtsov murder – this is the first and most bright blood in the modern Russian protest movement. But as history shows, the first blood in such cases becomes final. On the contrary, over time it begins to multiply in arithmetic, and even exponentially. Many of those who have not forgotten how to think and analyze involuntarily realize that the shots of the Kremlin may mean a transition to a new situation, a very serious and dangerous quality.
The fact that the murder is not Nemtsov just registered, but pronounced ostentatious character no doubt. The offense is committed in the heart of Moscow in front of the cameras of various intelligence agencies, as well as in front of several witnesses. If we were talking about the murder on nationalistic grounds, soil business, employment or other personal animosity, is unlikely to be criminals chose to do so “symbolic” place. Household and other amateurish version of the same is unlikely, judging by the “professionalism” with which the crime was committed. Four mortally wounded companion killed was not damaged, and “Light Damaged” vehicle killers have not been found – is unlikely to such capable usual street gopota.
The main question in this situation is to who and for what purpose could order the murder. An answer to this will depend on many things that happen in the country in the foreseeable future.
It is clear that the purpose of the customers was the best possible response. This is evidenced, as well as the choice of place and time of the murder, and the identity of the victim. In contrast to the same Navalny, Ryzhkov or Kasyanov, Nemtsov most widely known among the different categories of people, including those abroad. Murder was committed on the eve of the opposition march, that is at the peak of protest activity. Which suggests that the organizers were intended to strengthen the protest, or even translate it into a different phase.
With regard to potential stakeholders, that despite the abundance of different versions of them logically confirmed only a few. As mentioned above, the nature, location and execution of the crime exclude household and business background. The same can be said about the various “volunteers” authorities promise not to allow Russian Maidan. In this connection, there is one single version of the assassination.
Ever since the murder of many opposition members, as well as others that join them experts link the incident with the Kremlin and its desire to suppress any opposition activity. In fact, the probability of this is low. Without a doubt, neither the president nor his associates have little love for the non-systemic opposition and its attempts to assert themselves. Especially today, against the background of the developing crisis. At the same time, according to the Kremlin, the protest movement in its current form, does not present any particular risk for the state and those who lead it. Changing the status quo is only possible if prone to mass protest someone somehow will provoke and tease. Obviously, the murder of Boris Nemtsov such provocation is.
All this leads to the conclusion that the shots in the Greater Moscow River bridge Kremlin is not interested by definition. At least, if we talk about the most important of its inhabitants. Translation power relations – non-systemic opposition to the stage of direct violence entails enormous risks for the government itself. Today, the opposition has no tangible support among the population, provided that the remnants of the former economic prosperity and propaganda. However, well-being rapidly melts and keep the population under control for only one advocating for a long time is not possible. The opposition, on the contrary, in the case of deterioration of the economic situation will only increase, winning the popular vote in the state of the current leader. Stop or slow down this process can only global turmoil, war or natural disasters.
At the same time, the current conditional Kremlin same can not be regarded as a kind of indestructible monolith. Part of the elite has suffered and continues to suffer losses from ongoing policy president. The war in Ukraine, joining the Crimea, sanctions and damaged relations with the West have turned to many billions of casualties and the destruction of the old way of life. It is clear that, while maintaining its current policy of Moscow (and change it, Putin is not going to), these problems will only get worse.
This crystallizes in the elite group that is interested in ending the current policies and return to the previous state of affairs. Also, these people understand that to do so under the current head of state is hardly possible. Solution to their problem is possible only in conditions of changing the current leadership of the country and the arrival of new leaders. Do it in the format of a “palace coup” difficult and not only because Russia “no palaces.” The current government continues to enjoy the support of a large part of the population, which virtually eliminates the possibility of a coup.
For the affected part of the elite, rocking protest among the masses becomes almost the only opportunity to deprive the current government support of the population, with all the consequences. In this case, no propaganda Kremlin will not help.
Murder Boris Nemtsov fit in this version is quite clear. Exponential elimination of known opposition to invigorate the protest new force that is likely to happen. The crisis and the lack of a competent government’s anti-crisis policy, the war in Ukraine and Western sanctions will lead to a further deterioration of living standards. All together, it is able to reverse the trend of population’s attitude towards their leaders, making them extremely vulnerable position.
To fight this through political repression of the population would be extremely difficult. Crackdown on the background of a lack of economic “Gingerbread” will only multiply and tighten discontent. The consequences of such developments can be fatal.
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