Spring protest movement threatened by disputes among the dissenters
The Moscow City Court yesterday upheld the extension of the house arrest of Alexei Navalny until mid-February. The complaint filed by his defense, this decision shall be construed as “complete isolation from the social activist Navalny society.” The politician said it appeal to all opposition forces to hold on March 1 capital turnaround march “Spring”. The application for 100 thousand. People like trying to revive mass protest 2011-2012.
According to Navalny, mass demonstrations were the latest format of cooperation between the authorities and society. The procession, he plans to raise the backbone of previous meetings of 30-40 thousand. People. Now organizers are the Progress Party, RPR-Parnassus, Party on December 5 and “Solidarity”.
Hit 60-70 thousand. Politician is going through union opposition, insisting that “there is no first and second roles” and welcoming “all who share our demands,” that is, in his opinion, the majority of citizens.
Requirements non-system opposition he described as “clear and simple”. Indeed, the points put forward by yesterday’s anti-crisis program of anti-Putin protests are just. In the economic section – Cancel kontrsanktsy and plans to confiscate pension savings, as well as termination of “infusion of hundreds of billions in state-owned companies” and cuts in military spending. Political agenda includes “ending the war and any aggression against Ukraine”, the tolerance of opposition parties and candidates for elections and provide them with the central air TV, as well as the abolition of propaganda in the media and the release of political prisoners.
Indirectly orientation anti-Putin action confirms himself Navalny, saying the government for 15 years, the problems have failed. However, the opposition only use levopopulistskoy rhetoric, but the real “most people” it never suppo rted. Calculation of the same, apparently, is on the so-called angry townspeople – a real basis rallies 2011-2012. Repeat the success of the three-four years ago Navalny and other leaders of the right-wing parties intend due to the fact that for this category of people the crisis seems to be the hardest hit.
However, there are a number of reasons now to doubt the possibility of a revival of mass protest movement is from March 1. First and foremost, attention is drawn to this date announced last March. Month for the organization of anti-crisis measures, while the crisis rages in full, and the government has put forward an anti-crisis plan – is at present quite a lot. So, on the one hand, until March 1, in opposition figures have a chance to negotiate with each other, on the other – there is a danger with these arrangements, its not keep up with reality.
Indeed, the co-chairman of the RPR-Parnassus Boris Nemtsov said yesterday, “Nezavisimaya Gazeta” that the idea of the march does not belong exclusively Navalny – it is a common and developed by a coalition of opposition parties. And of these requirements only have to isolate the most important. If the march takes place, he continued Nemtsov will differ from the events of 2011-2012 – now other moods, other agenda. Then there was a struggle for fair elections, and now – the fight against the crisis. Participation of parliamentary parties is excluded, as this would discredit the opposition.
To ensure mass actions should just put forward by the coalition demands. They are, according to Navalny, share and “many well system policies.” For example, Yevgeny Primakov made similar statements at a recent meeting of “Mercury Club”.
The Chairman of the “Yabloko” Sergei Mitrokhin called for the narrowing of the scope of the issues involved. “I would like to share more effective,” – he said, “NG” and proposed to focus on the requirements related to the conflict in the Donets Basin and the settlement of relations with Europe.
And to repeat the scenario of 2011-2012 Mitrokhin reacted skeptically, “I do not see any angry townspeople now – I see depressed. They solve their economic problems, rather than organize protests. ” By the way, activists of the “Apple” will not participate in the march, if they come to the nationalists and the radical left.
However, the nationalists did not want to participate too. “You have to love the idea in itself, but not the idea itself,” – said, “NG” Head of the Supreme National Council of Association “Russian” Dmitry Dyomushkin, alluding to the fact that the nationalists, however, like all the other s, came out in 2011-2012 on the street for change, rather than politicians. The opposition from right-wing parties, he said, took the position that, at best, they are not against the participation of nationalists. At worst – criticize them. The second option, continued Dyomushkin, fraught with the fact that “most of them nationalists” Antimaydana “come».
The head of the Kaliningrad branch of the “Civic Platform” (GP) Solomon Ginsburg noted that the protest movement now is qualitatively different than the three or four years ago: “Then the protests came to nothing because it was more formal – have been submitted alternative actions of the authorities. ” In other words, we need a program of specific actions to overcome the crisis. However, the requirements of the coalition Ginsburg approved, but said that this is not enough. “For example, our department has a GP draft manifesto regional op position” – immediately he said. The issue of participation in the march, according to him, will decide the members of the Political GP.
Thus, it turns out that 100 per cent of unity among opposition forces yet. Help it, in theory, should that organization, as noted Bulk, will “not the organizing committee of 10 people, and 5 thousand.”. However, without the concerted action of the opposition leaders is to provide a mass rally will be impossible.
A major future “spring offensive” felt CEO Council for National Strategy Valery Hamsters: “For the first time the opposition comes also with the social demands, which is difficult to argue.” However, much will depend on three things. The first – the socio-economic situation in the country. She apparently did not improve. Second – regions where now “difficult situation”, but you need to get ready. And finall y, the third – to behave as power, that is whether they will interfere with the march.
skeptical about the possibility of a revival of mass protest movement took the first vice-president of the Center for Political Technologies, Alexei Makarkin. According to him, the opposition is not the one – part of its supporters “went over to the authorities about the Crimea and Ukraine – is left and nationalists.” Moreover, the population and maintains consolidation around power. Anti-Western sentiments people have antioppozitsionny and character. In economic difficulties, according to public opinion, to blame the West, and yet people believe in what the government will find a way. Citizens, concluded Makarkin, maybe again and angry, but rather on US President Barack Obama.
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