Photo: TASS
Сергей Aleksashenko, the former first deputy chairman of the Central Bank
I have a poor prognosis, which is based solely on logical constructs. Obviously the power wildly afraid of possible events on January 15 as well as any other mass protests. It is clear that the 15th Navalny supporters and those who care about the fate of the country, would gather only in the case of a punitive sentence. If the government carries sentencing for tomorrow, so she knows that he will be the one which will cause a mass protest.
If Alexei convicted, regardless of the conditional or unconditional term, it will mean that from now guilty can be recognized either. No matter what he did or did not do. Russian court is not important any evidence or opinion witnesses. As they say, would be a man, and the work there.
I do not think that the conviction will lead to a revolution or Maidan – Russian society too inert and indifferent. Each naively believes that his pass this cup. But in the long term for small and medium-sized businesses it would be an additional argument in favor of the fact that any activity in Russia is criminalized.
And yet, and this is most important from a political point of view, the deprivation of liberty Navalny Putin his colleagues are depriving themselves of a calm and carefree old age – they will have to pay for it in full. It does not matter: in 5 years, 10 or over 20. The price of this decision, they will be sure to pay.
Игорь Jurgens, a member of the Bureau of RSPP, Chairman of the Foundation “Institute of Contemporary Development»
No matter what the sentence is time for those who are behind them, well chosen. If there is an acquittal or at least “human” – it will be good news for the New Year. If guilty, the reaction to it is inactive: the currency market before the New Year this news almost no impact. But how many string to be twisted – the end will ever be.
Антон Danilov-Co-Chair of “Business Russia»
Risks [conviction] were already established players stock. If the verdict is positive, then we can expect some improvement in stock indices, but if it is negative, the major long-term changes will not. Business has already laid for the future worst-case scenario. Only suddenly more favorable course of events for bulk can make all the difference.
Valery Mironov, chief economist at the Center for Development HSE
The fact Navalny investors is regarded as one of the indicators grew sian business climate. It’s an easy way for the government to use this indicator as an indication of the fact that Russia is in the direction of ease of doing business [in the case of acquittal]. [If the verdict is guilty], it can affect in a negative power because Bulk sufficiently promoted among foreign investors. The verdict could affect trading on the currency and stock market.
Dmitry Polevoy, chief economist at ING in Russia and CIS
In the current geopolitical situation and the situation in the markets business Navalny is unlikely to significantly affect the global reassessment of risks and domestic investors. The case has political context, and a conviction would be a clear signal of opposition-minded part of society on the eve of the planned January protests opposition. Formally, the only positive outcome can have any appreciable impact on the markets, the same negative outcome is unlikely to add a strong negative. However, in recent days, the markets are “thin” and illiquid. Therefore, the sentence itself may be an additional reason for speculators to move the market in the right direction, provided that the rest of the news background remains neutral.
Александр Kalinin, the president of “Support of Russia»
The investment climate depends on other things, I guess. From what? Level of taxation, the cost of labor, predictability and adequacy of economic policy, Regulatory, business confidence in the future. Bulk something which he employed? He – politician. Certainly the case Navalny in the investment climate is not relevant.
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