MOSCOW, December 29. If the opposition leader Alexei Navalny found guilty, regardless of the conditional or unconditional term, it will mean that the guilty could now be recognized either. Moreover, the conviction Navalny will signal to employers that do business in Russia is dangerous. This opinion was expressed in an interview with RBC economist, a former first deputy chairman Sergei Aleksashenko.
“I have a poor prognosis, which is based solely on logical constructs. Obviously the power wildly afraid of possible events on January 15 as well as any other mass protests. It is clear that the 15th Navalny supporters and those who care about the fate of the country, gathered would only be a punitive sentence. If the government carries sentencing for tomorrow, so she knows what it will be such a cause mass protest – says Aleksashenko. – If Alexei convicted, regardless of the conditional or unconditional term, it will mean that the guilty could now be recognized either. No matter what he did or did not do. The Russian court is not important any evidence or Opinions witnesses. As they say, was a man, and the work there “.
According to the economist, the conviction is unlikely” would entail a revolution or Maidan “.
” Russian society too inert and indifferent – says Aleksashenko. – Each naively believes that his pass this cup. But in the long term for small and medium-sized businesses it would be an additional argument in favor of the fact that any activity in Russia is criminalized “.
A member of the Bureau of RSPP, Chairman of the Foundation” Institute of Contemporary Development “Igor Jurgens, in turn, said that regardless of what the sentence, “the time for those who are behind them, well chosen”.
“If there is an acquittal or at least” human “- it would be nice news for the New Year. If guilty, the reaction to it is inactive: the currency market before the New Year this news almost no impact. But how many string to be twisted – the end will ever be, “- said Jurgens.
Co-Chair of” Business Russia “Anton Danilov-believes that the risks of a guilty verdict had already been laid stock players. According to him, the business already laid for the future worst-case scenario.
“Just suddenly a more favorable course of events for bulk can change everything,” – said the expert.
According to the chief economist at the Center for Development Valery Mironov HSE ” business Navalny “investors is regarded as one of the indicators grew sian business climate.
” It’s an easy way for the government to use this indicator as an indication of the fact that Russia is in the direction of ease of doing business (in case of acquittal), – he said. – (If the verdict is guilty), this may have a negative power because Bulk sufficiently promoted among foreign investors. The verdict could affect trading on the currency and stock market “.
Meanwhile, chief economist at ING in Russia and the CIS Dmitry Polevoy believes that in the current geopolitical situation and the situation on the markets,” Navalny business “is unlikely to significantly affect the reassessment of the risk of global and domestic investors.
“The matter is the political context … formally, only positive outcome can have any appreciable impact on the markets, the same negative outcome is unlikely to add a strong negative” – he said, adding that “the sentence itself may be an additional reason for speculators to move the market in the right direction, provided that the rest of the news background remains neutral”.
Professor MGIMO Valery Solovey in an interview with the Newspaper noted that ” authorities want to avoid mass action “.
” no other reason, and by the way, the transfer shows that the government seriously feared mass dynamics, “- he said.
According to the analyst Konstantin Kalachev , “is an attempt to interfere with the plans of the protesters”.
“Whatever the verdict, after it will be time. During this time, he will have time to discuss condemn obmusolit, comment on the news, he will be gone. And if it is not too hard, it will drown in champagne and dissolved in poslenovogodnem hangover “- he added. According to Kalacheva is thoughtful,” is clearly not spontaneous, “the decision.
Earlier it was reported that scheduled for January 15, 2015 sentencing brothers Navalny on “business” Yves Rocher “suddenly moved to December 30th. Press Secretary Zamoskvoreche Court of Moscow Yulia Petrova confirmed “Rosbalt” this information.
Prosecutors demanded in court to admit brothers Alexei Navalny and Oleg guilty of defrauding the company “Yves Rocher” and sentenced them to 10 and 8 years in prison common mode respectively. The Court today also extended the house arrest of Alexei Navalny until February 15.
Investigators believe that Alexei Navalny and his brother Oleg, who is head of the Department of Internal mail “Mail of Russia”, from 2008 to 2013, fraudulently stolen money funds of the company “Yves Rocher East” in excess of 26.7 million rubles., and OOO “Multidisciplinary processing company” in the amount of more than 4.4 million rubles.
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