Wednesday, February 24, 2016

How long Ramzan Kadyrov stay in power – BBC

«Alternatives to Kadyrov there. The people of his clearly does not let go, – said in an interview with “Gazeta.ru” the chairman of the Chechen parliament Magomed Daudov. – Ramzan Akhmatovich said many times, that does not cling to his position, so for me personally, nothing new in this statement. For me it is obvious that in the elections the people of Chechnya 100% support Kadyrov because Chechens grateful and generous people, and they remember that in the heavy days for us, he only did not hesitate and took everything on himself. I think that after 10 and 20 years, and generally how many will be alive Kadyrov, the Chechen people will be for him. »

In April will expire five-year term at the head of Chechnya . The question is whether the Kremlin plans to offer the new head of the republic, and who it can be

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the last two months, Ramzan Kadyrov does not leave the field of information, especially if “causing the fire itself.” In the Russian Press Day Kadyrov called the opposition “traitors” and “enemies of the people.” Then began flash mobs “against Kadyrov” and “for Kadyrov,” – the latter, in addition to artists and entertainers, noting the entire top of the “United Russia”. Later, at a rally in support of Kadyrov (in time!) Has gathered all of Chechnya.

After a while Kadyrov posted a video instagrame former prime minister Mikhail Kasyanov, if made through the machine target. “Whoever does not understand, he will understand,” – wrote Kadyrov. Video removed itself as a social network does not satisfy its requirements, but it is already out of print thousands repost. Again the storm indignation – after the murder of an opposition politician Boris Nemtsov, a hundred meters from the Kremlin, among the organizers and perpetrators of the investigation which refers to residents of Chechnya, “joke” on the subject is not very appropriate

Statements from the Kremlin did not follow.. Then head Kasyanov in Moscow restaurant collapsed cake. Once again, the performers were Chechens and video attacks the next day got in the media

So the active presence of Kadyrov’s news agenda was not in vain -.

in January rating of “Medialogia” Kadyrov was first obtained a negative result: it quoted is still a lot, but mostly in a negative way

A few days ago Kadyrov returned in the information field:. first laid out in the network oppositionist Ilya Yashin report on the situation in Chechnya. According to Kadyrov, representatives Parnassus “was announced as the report of a sensational material”. “We publish it, so that everyone who wants to, can be found, without waiting for the press conference. His attitude to the one-man show, I express that replicates these things work. We do not know that for boltologiya will be yet, but writing does not contain anything other than talk, “- she wrote the head of Chechnya. Republican media safely called a “stroke of genius”, and during the presentation of the report, which said “corruption, human rights violations and political violence in Chechnya,” in Yashin dropped “dollar” bills.

what signals and someone sends Kadyrov

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One of the experts close to the Kremlin in the conversation with “Gazetoy.Ru” suggested that between the Kremlin and Grozny in recent years is “signaling”. “The federal government has no tools to change in their favor the situation in Chechnya. I assume that is negotiating for resources, it is possible that even this is not at the level of bargaining talks, and signals. That is neither the center nor Kadyrov called conditions. They make some steps and wait for the reaction on the other hand, “- he believes

Is there a principle Kadyrov least potential successor

.? Kadyrov called such a State Duma deputy Adam Delimkhanov. Another influential person in fact the right hand of Kadyrov in Chechnya, is the speaker of the republican parliament Magomed Daudov.

Delimkhanov oversees all external Chechen connection, such as the Middle East, and is Kadyrov’s representative in Moscow, explains Political scientist Vadim Samodurov. According to him, it Delimkhanov – the most powerful figure and a likely successor to Kadyrov in the future. This Chechen politician entered into the federal agenda. Daudov same -. Figure more regional rather than federal

Political analyst Nikolai Mironov believes that Kadyrov is a lot of enemies, and in the country, and in the federal structures. And as always, before the re-election in the regions, they are trying to raise the issue of the change of power in the Chechen Republic to the President. For example, assign a different figure from the country or lead to federal “Governor-General”. “However, while the Kremlin is objectively beneficial to leave the status quo” – concludes Mironov

«The position of Kadyrov is quite stable, and some alternatives do not exist.. But as for the conditions of his reassignment, there may be some bargaining, – said political analyst Rostislav Turovsky-regionalists. – In my opinion, recent conflicts have caused him some damage. On the resignation of the question, as to the federal government, he is still one of the pillars of stability in Chechnya, but some elements of the bargain between him and the center possible. The authorities are in a position, when they can not go further concessions

For example, Kadyrov last year Kadyrov. “Asked to give” Chechenneftekhimprom republic. ” In fact, it was negotiating for control over economic resources of the country. “However, when around Kadyrov appear ambiguous situation in the public field, the federal authorities have every right to say that the powers they have it extended, but ask for more is not necessary”, – says Turovsky

What does it mean Peskov about alleged. outstanding issue with the extension of Kadyrov’s authority? “In fact, Peskov said:” The time will come – all will know “this is a formal response. And it is impossible to judge any new emphasis in the situation – says the head of the fund “Petersburg policy” Mikhail Vinogradov. –

As for Kadyrov, until yesterday, he chose the tactics of aggravation. It is most productive, albeit risky

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It is understood that it shows strength, but at the same time updates the existing discontent. Although now he showed a new maneuver. Placing report Yashin, curses in the direction of Beria and Stalin – all this already looks like a game of semitones. But the problem is acute not charged for it. I think now a variety of players, noting that the head of Chechnya’s end of office beginning somehow improvising. »

A well-informed source in the government said” Gazeta.ru “, which is now around Kadyrov” is multi-vector game, and if something starts, it is done instantly and unexpectedly, or not done for a long time, and month and year »

« the decision on the figure of Kadyrov -. it is Ukraine and Syria, together – he says, referring to the importance of the decision and the scale of its potential impacts. – There must be a coalition of those who have the strength and position of the figure can at least be opposed. Now there are none of the Caucasus region. ” The decision to extend or not to extend Kadyrov’s office can take only one person, and it is not Volodin and not Ivanov, noted the source, meaning that neither the head of the administration, or his first deputy did not take such a decision without Putin.

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